The UK’s mean temperature from 1 June to 17 August currently stands at 16.2°C, which is 1.6°C above the long-term meteorological average.  

With two weeks of summer still to go, conditions may yet shift. However, the season’s overall warmth and consistency in above-average temperatures suggest it could rank among the UK’s warmest summers on record. 

Met Office scientist, Emily Carlisle, said: “It’s looking like this summer is on track to be one of the warmest, if not ‘the’ warmest, since the series began in 1884. What’s striking is the consistency of the warmth. June and July were both well above average and even outside of heatwaves, temperatures have remained on the warmer side.  

“This persistent warmth is driven by a combination of factors including dry ground from spring, high-pressure systems, and unusually warm seas around the UK. These conditions have created an environment where heat builds quickly and lingers. While we haven’t seen record-breaking highs, with 35.8°C the peak so far this year, the overall trend in consistently above-average temperatures is what matters.  

“At present, the warmest UK summers on record are pretty clustered. They include 2018 as the warmest, then 2006, 2003, 2022 and 1976. With two weeks still to go, things could of course change, but the data so far strongly suggests we’re heading towards one of the UK’s hottest summers on record.” 

Both maximum and minimum temperatures have also been significantly above average, with minimum temperatures especially so.   

Consistently above-average temperatures  

Both June and July delivered consistently above-average temperatures. June began on a cooler note, influenced by Atlantic weather systems, but warm spells later in the month lifted the UK mean temperature to 15.2°C, 1.9°C above the long-term meteorological average. England recorded its warmest June on record, while Wales and the UK overall saw their third and second warmest Junes respectively. July continued the trend, with a UK mean temperature of 16.8°C, 1.5°C above average, making it the fifth warmest July on record. 

Four heatwaves so far 

Four heatwaves have occurred so far this summer and whilst this may be unusual, each has been short-lived and interspersed with near-average conditions. None of the heatwaves have forced the UK highest temperature of the year to particularly high levels, with the highest temperature recorded to date for 2025 35.8°C in Faversham, Kent. This is well below the UK’s all-time high of 40.3°C set in 2022. 

Below average, but variable rainfall  

So far this summer, rainfall is tracking below average, with 72% of the of the whole summer’s long-term average recorded. At this point in the season, you’d expect 85%. There is of course, much regional variation, with central, southern and eastern parts of England and Wales so far especially dry, whilst north-western parts of the UK, especially Scotland, have been much wetter. Northern Scotland has already seen 98% of its seasonal rainfall (1 June to 17th August) but the Midlands 58%.

This all comes off the back of England's driest spring in more than 100 years and the driest January-July period since 1929.  

Above-average sunshine 

Sunshine amounts are also tracking ahead of average so far, although it's too early to suggest where it might end in terms of records. 

Why has it been so persistently warm? 

Several factors have contributed to the persistent warmth, including a dominant high-pressure system, dry spring soils reducing evaporative cooling, and a significant marine heatwave around the UK enhancing air temperatures. Climate change is also playing a role, with the UK warming at a rate of approximately 0.25°C per decade. 2023, 2022 and 2018 are among the UK’s top ten warmest summers in records back to 1884.