After a week of benign anticyclonic gloom, low pressure has pushed the area of high pressure away to the east over the weekend. Heavy rain in Northern Ireland saw 59.2mm accumulate at Killowen from midnight to 14:00 on Sunday. Continued influence from low pressure will bring more unsettled weather to the UK weather this week.

Monday will see heavy showers, particularly across southern England and southern Wales, as well as more persistent rain in northwestern Scotland. Tuesday will be another day of showers though with more spells of sunshine between the showers and a reduction in gusty winds too.

Wednesday is likely to be the finest day of the week, with dry and bright conditions for central and eastern parts. There will be some showers in parts of Northern Ireland, Western Scotland and the Northern Isles for a time and some light rain in the far south.

Increasingly unsettled weather by midweek

Later Wednesday afternoon conditions will start to change from the west, with increasingly heavy rain and later stronger winds moving in as low pressure crosses the south coast.

Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, Tom Crabtree, said: “By Wednesday evening we’ll see increasingly unsettled weather moving in from the west. Overnight on Wednesday heavy rain and some strong gusty winds will move along the south of the UK. Accumulations of 25-40mm of rain are possible over twelve hours or so in southern counties.

“The unsettled conditions will become more widespread across the UK through Thursday with further heavy showers bringing more rainfall to many parts of the UK. It is possible severe weather warnings will be issued for this unsettled weather, and with some uncertainty over the exact positioning and detail of the low-pressure system, people should keep up to date with the weather forecast as it evolves this week.”

Turning cooler into the weekend

As the area of low pressure moves away to the East the strong winds will become more focussed to the east coast of England and Scotland on Friday. This progress eastwards will also allow cooler, arctic maritime air to spill southwards across the UK. By Saturday this colder air will bring below average temperatures to much of the UK, with daytime temperatures likely to be in the low double figures. As temperatures fall it is possible there could be some wintry showers over the tops of the Scottish mountains, as is usual by this time in the year.

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