Met Office 10-Day Trend: A repeating pattern of heat and showers

Author: Press Office

The UK’s weather over the past three weeks has followed a repeating cycle, and the latest 10-day trend suggests this pattern may continue into mid-July.

The back-and-forth between high pressure from the Azores and cooler, more unsettled conditions from the northwest remains the dominant theme.

Recent weather cycles

Since early June, the UK has experienced alternating spells of cool, changeable westerlies and warmer, more settled conditions as high pressure has built in from the southwest. These cycles have brought a number of brief hot spells, particularly in the south and east, followed by a return to cooler, wetter weather. The hottest day of the year so far occurred on 1 July, marking the peak of the most recent warm phase.

Current conditions and short-term outlook

As we move into early July, high pressure has once again retreated towards the Azores, allowing cooler, more unsettled conditions to return from the northwest. However, this high is expected to build slightly over the coming days, bringing mostly fine weather to southern parts of the UK on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will rise once again, with highs reaching the mid to high 20s Celsius in the southeast, accompanied by increasing humidity.

In contrast, northwestern areas will see a continuation of wet and windy conditions. Blustery showers and heavy downpours are forecast for western Scotland and Northern Ireland, with rain becoming more persistent by Thursday night. Friday will see widespread rainfall across northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, with totals exceeding 50mm in parts of western Scotland and potentially over 100mm in exposed areas such as the Isle of Skye. A yellow weather warning for rain is now in place for western Scotland from 6am on Friday to 3pm on Saturday. 

Weekend weather: North-south divide persists

The weekend will maintain the familiar northwest-southeast split. While southern and eastern areas may remain largely dry, a weakening weather front could bring some much-needed rain to parts of England and Wales, particularly the southwest. Rainfall totals of 20-40mm are possible over higher ground such as Dartmoor and Bodmin Moor. However, this rain is expected to become more showery and less widespread as the day progresses.

Cloud cover will be extensive across the UK, limiting sunshine and contributing to a humid feel in the south. Meanwhile, fresher air will move into the north, with further rain expected for western Scotland, though not as intense as Friday’s.

READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Record heat, flying ants, and a changeable outlook

Looking ahead: Cooler start, warmer finish?

Sunday and the start of next week will be characterised by a cool, showery west to northwest airflow. Temperatures will return to near or slightly below average, with highs in the southeast around 24°C and elsewhere in the high teens to low 20s. The jet stream is forecast to dip southwards, reinforcing the cooler conditions and bringing further showers, particularly to the northwest.

However, from midweek onwards, there are signs that the Azores High may once again begin to build in from the southwest. While uncertainty remains, ensemble model guidance suggests a trend towards more settled conditions, especially in southern and western areas. The most likely weather pattern for the middle of next week (around 9 July) features a return of high pressure from the southwest, though low pressure may linger near northern Scotland, keeping conditions more changeable there.

By Thursday 10 July, the Azores High is expected to become more influential, potentially bringing warmer and drier weather to much of the UK. Temperature forecasts show a gradual rise, though the range of possible outcomes increases, reflecting uncertainty in the strength and extent of the high pressure’s influence.

The UK’s weather over the next 10 days is expected to follow a familiar pattern: a brief warm-up in the south, continued wet conditions in the northwest, and a potential return to more settled, warmer weather from midweek onwards. The extent to which the Azores High re-establishes itself will determine whether the UK sees a return to widespread summer warmth or remains under the influence of cooler, more unsettled conditions.

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