The next ten days will bring a rather mixed and at times uncertain picture, with no single weather pattern taking firm control.
Instead, weak areas of high and low pressure will drift around the UK, leading to alternating spells of sunshine, cloud and showers. While there will be some warmer interludes, particularly in the south, this will be tempered by cooler air at times, especially across northern areas and later in the period.
The rest of this week
Through the latter part of the working week, the weather will remain changeable but generally fairly benign. With the jet stream fragmented and weak, there is little to drive any prolonged settled or unsettled conditions. As a result, many areas will see a mixture of cloud, sunny spells and scattered showers.
A weather front will act as a dividing line between cooler air to the north and milder air pushing up from the south. This contrast will become more noticeable by Friday, with temperatures in the far north staying in single figures at times, while parts of southern England move closer to 20°C. Exactly where this boundary sits will vary, and small shifts north or south could make a big difference to local conditions.
Weekend outlook
As we head into the weekend, the jet stream becomes a little more organised, introducing greater uncertainty. Low pressure to the south-west and higher pressure attempting to build from the north-west will compete for influence, leaving the UK split into different weather zones.
Southern areas are most likely to see the warmest conditions, especially where sunshine develops. With temperatures potentially reaching the low twenties in parts of the south, this may feel like a noticeable improvement. However, the same setup also increases the risk of showers, some of which could be heavy and possibly thundery, particularly later on Saturday and into Saturday night.
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Further north, cooler air will dominate, especially where cloud and rain linger close to the frontal boundary. In these areas, it may feel quite chilly, particularly along North Sea coasts where brisk winds add to the coolness. Northern Scotland, meanwhile, is more likely to see drier and brighter conditions at times, but with temperatures remaining on the cool side.
Early next week
By Sunday and into the start of the new working week, winds are expected to turn more northerly or north-easterly, allowing cooler air to spread southwards across much of the UK. This transition will bring a fresher feel for many, with temperatures dropping back closer to, or below, average for mid-May.
Low pressure is likely to sit to the east of the UK, with higher pressure out to the west. This type of pattern typically brings a mix of sunny spells and showers, particularly in eastern and central areas. While showers may be frequent at times, there is little sign of widespread or prolonged rainfall.
Mid to late next week
As we move further into the second half of the ten-day period, there are strong signals that this cooler, showery pattern will persist. Computer models continue to favour a north-westerly or westerly airflow, which at this time of year often results in below-average temperatures and a mix of sunshine and showers.
Western areas may see the best of any drier spells if higher pressure nudges closer at times, though temperatures are still likely to remain on the cool side. Elsewhere, particularly in the east, showers may be more frequent, but these will be interspersed with brighter intervals.
Despite the cooler theme, when the sun does break through it will still have some warmth, helping temperatures recover during the day and making conditions feel pleasant between showers.
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