The UK is set for a changeable spell of early autumn weather over the next 10 days.
Low pressure systems will bring periods of rain and wind, interspersed with quieter conditions under brief ridges of high pressure.While all areas are likely to see some rain, the wettest and windiest weather will often affect the north and west.
Rain spreading east on Thursday
A frontal system will move into the UK from the west on Thursday, bringing rain to many areas. The rain will arrive first across Northern Ireland and western Britain, with the heaviest and most persistent conditions likely across northwestern areas.
Eastern parts of the country should remain largely dry for much of the day, before the rain reaches these areas later. Some heavier bursts may develop as the front continues eastwards through Thursday night and into Friday morning, although widespread significant impacts are not expected.
A quieter day on Friday
A temporary ridge of high pressure will follow the front, bringing a quieter day for much of the UK on Friday. Some rain may linger across eastern areas, with isolated outbreaks possible elsewhere, but many places will be dry.
There should also be some brighter or sunnier spells, although conditions will begin to change again from the west as another area of low pressure approaches the UK ahead of the weekend.
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Wet and windy weather possible on Saturday
Saturday currently looks like the most unsettled day of the weekend, particularly across northern and western areas. Low pressure approaching from the Atlantic is expected to bring rain and strengthening winds, but there remains uncertainty over its exact track, timing and intensity.
This system is still developing, and relatively small changes in its path could affect where the heaviest rain and strongest winds occur. At present, northern and western parts of the UK are most likely to experience the wettest and windiest conditions. Some western areas could receive 30 to 50mm of rain, with higher totals possible locally. If this falls within a short period, there is a risk of surface-water or flash flooding.
Gusts of 50 to 60mph are also possible in exposed locations, alongside some gusty conditions inland across parts of Scotland and northeast England. Large waves may affect some coasts, with spring tides potentially increasing coastal impacts.
Further south and east, Saturday may begin largely dry with some sunshine. Rain is expected to reach these areas later, continuing in places overnight, although it should be lighter than across the north and west.
Conditions improving on Sunday
Rain across southern areas should gradually clear during Sunday as another ridge of high-pressure builds. This will allow conditions to become quieter during the latter part of the weekend, with drier and brighter weather developing more widely.
Temperatures may rise slightly above average, particularly across southern areas, making Sunday one of the warmer days of the forecast period. Maximum temperatures could reach the mid-20s Celsius in parts of the south, while conditions elsewhere will remain closer to the seasonal norm.
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Another low-pressure system on Monday
The quieter period is unlikely to last, with a mature area of low pressure expected to pass to the northwest of the UK on Monday. This will bring further wet and windy weather, particularly to northwestern areas.
The low is expected to remain some distance from the UK, limiting its overall impact. Southern and eastern areas are likely to remain mostly dry, while the most persistent rain and strongest winds affect the northwest. Confidence in this broad pattern is relatively good, although details may still change.
Remaining changeable next week
During the middle and latter part of next week, high pressure is expected to build near the southwest of the UK at times. However, further low-pressure systems may move around its northern edge, continuing to bring occasional rain and wind to northern areas.
Southern parts of the country should see more prolonged dry periods, although no completely settled spell is expected at this stage. Forecast confidence decreases later in the period, with some indications that high pressure could become more influential.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
