The next 10 days bring a marked change in the UK’s weather, beginning with a cold, frosty spell before Atlantic low pressure takes control next week.
A northerly airflow will bring increasingly cold conditions across the UK as we head through Thursday, pushing lingering cloud and rain away from southern counties. Much of the country will see clearer skies, but showers will affect northern Scotland, where strong northerly winds will add to the chill.
Across Shetland and Orkney, wind gusts could exceed 50 mph, while the combination of cold Arctic air and relatively warm seas will generate frequent showers, with thunderstorms, lightning and small hail possible. Snow will increasingly fall over the hills of northern Scotland, with a few centimetres possible above a couple of hundred metres.
Away from these showers, many places will enjoy crisp autumn sunshine, although temperatures will be noticeably lower.
Thursday night is expected to bring one of the most widespread frosts of the autumn so far. In sheltered rural locations temperatures could fall to around -5°C to -7°C, while even some towns and cities could approach or dip below freezing.
Another frosty start on Friday
Friday will begin cold and frosty for many. Away from showers in the far north and northwest, there should be plenty of sunshine, with daytime temperatures generally around 6°C to 8°C. The northerly airflow will gradually ease, but cold air will remain in place.
Another widespread frost is expected into Saturday morning, particularly across southern, central and eastern areas. Meanwhile, northern Scotland will retain a more showery picture, including further hill snow.
Snow risk increases for some this weekend
The weather becomes more complicated through the weekend as areas of low pressure and associated fronts interact with the cold air already across the UK.
Much of the Midlands, eastern and south-eastern England should start Saturday dry, sunny and frosty. However, rain will become increasingly widespread across northern and central Scotland, with further showers affecting northern England and north Wales.
The main snow risk arrives across northern Scotland on Saturday night into Sunday as rain meets colder air. Some snow could temporarily reach lower levels, but the most significant accumulations are expected over higher ground. Around 2 cm is possible above 200 metres, with several centimetres over higher routes and potentially 5-10 cm over the tops of the hills.
Sunday will remain mixed. Snow across northern Scotland should gradually ease, with rain at lower levels, while cloud and patchy rain or showers spread into western areas and Northern Ireland. England and Wales should remain largely dry, although increasingly cloudy.
Atlantic weather returns next week
By Monday, the weather pattern begins to change more substantially. A powerful Atlantic jet stream is expected to help develop a large area of low pressure, which will increasingly dominate the UK's weather from later Monday and through much of next week.
Although forecast models differ over the precise position, shape and depth of the low pressure, there is broad agreement on the overall theme: spells of rain arriving from the west accompanied by strengthening winds, with a predominantly westerly or south-westerly airflow.
Western hills are likely to see the largest rainfall totals, while current indications suggest rainfall could be above average across western and southern parts of the UK. With repeated spells of rain possible, there is the potential for some impacts if large amounts fall within a short period.
Winds could also become strong enough to cause impacts, although the details will depend heavily on the exact tracks and development of individual low-pressure systems. Forecast confidence in those details should improve closer to the time.
Turning milder, but perhaps not everywhere
For much of the UK, the arrival of Atlantic air should bring rising temperatures next week, with fewer frosty nights compared with the next few days.
Northern Scotland may prove an exception. Some forecast scenarios keep colder Arctic air in place here. If Atlantic rain encounters that cold air, further snow could develop, particularly over higher ground.
So, after a taste of wintry weather and some notably cold nights, the overall direction of travel through the next 10 days is towards a more familiar late-autumn combination of wind, rain and milder Atlantic air, but with the possibility of further wintry conditions lingering in the far north
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