The UK’s weather will remain unsettled over the next 10 days, with Storm Austen followed by further areas of low pressure.
Heavy rain and strong winds are expected through the end of this week and into the weekend, before signs of drier and calmer conditions emerge towards the end of October.
An active jet stream will play a central role in the forecast, strengthening Atlantic low-pressure systems and directing them towards the UK.
What is the UK weather forecast for the next 10 days?
Storm Austen will bring the first spell of disruptive weather, with strong winds and heavy rain affecting parts of the UK from Thursday night into Friday. Another deep area of low pressure, Storm Boelo, will then bring widespread wet and windy weather on Saturday.
Further rain and strong winds are likely at the beginning of next week. However, forecast scenarios suggest high pressure could increasingly influence southern parts of the UK during the second half of the week, allowing conditions to become drier and calmer.
How will Storm Austen affect the UK?
Storm Austen is expected to strengthen as it interacts with a powerful jet stream over the Atlantic. The low-pressure system will deepen to the southwest of the UK before moving through the English Channel.
The strongest winds are expected on the southern and western side of the storm, where the pressure gradient will be tightest. During Thursday night and into Friday, gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible across Cornwall, the Isles of Scilly and parts of west Devon. Exposed coastal locations could potentially experience gusts of 70 to 80 mph.
Strong winds will also affect parts of the south coast of England and west Wales. The exact location and strength of the winds will depend on Storm Austen’s track, which could still move slightly farther north or south.
Where will the heaviest rain fall?
Thursday will begin dry and bright in many places, although rain and strong winds will take longer to clear Shetland. Conditions will deteriorate in the south later as Storm Austen approaches, bringing heavy rain and increasingly strong winds.
Friday will start wet and windy, with potentially difficult travelling conditions. Rain should move through many areas during the day, allowing some drier and brighter weather to develop as the winds gradually ease.
Persistent rain is likely across eastern Scotland. Southern and eastern Scotland could receive between 50 and 75 mm, with around 80 mm or more possible over higher ground. This could produce localised impacts, particularly where the ground is already wet.
Storm Boelo this weekend
A deep area of low pressure is forecast to bring impactful winds on Saturday night and through Sunday to northern parts of the UK. The system will be invigorated by an active jet stream as it crosses the Atlantic before reaching Northern Ireland and western Scotland on Saturday afternoon.
Storm Boelo [pronounced Boo-loh] is a separate low pressure system to Storm Austen which will bring strong wind and heavy rain to southern parts on Thursday night and Friday. Storm Austen clears into the North Sea by Friday evening.
Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Chris Bulmer, said: “Storm Boelo will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England over the weekend, impacting the opposite end of the country to Storm Austen. Gusts of 70-80mph in exposed coastal areas and high ground are possible, with 50-60mph gusts more widely. The strong winds will be accompanied by heavy rain, making for an impactful weekend of weather. Severe weather warnings and forecast detail will continue to develop, so people should keep up to date with the forecast over the next few days.”
When could the weather become calmer?
Another low-pressure system is expected to pass northwest of the UK on Monday, bringing a renewed spell of rain and strong winds. The first half of next week is therefore likely to remain changeable, with the wettest conditions expected in northern and western areas.
Rain may clear during Tuesday, although showers and brisk winds are likely to continue, particularly across northern Britain.
During the second half of next week, high pressure may begin to build across southern parts of the UK. This would bring a greater chance of drier, calmer weather towards the end of October, while northern areas could remain closer to Atlantic low pressure.
Confidence decreases at this range, so the timing and extent of the change remain uncertain. Keep up to date with the latest UK forecast and weather warnings as details develop.
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