After a relatively quiet start to autumn, the weather will become much more unsettled this week as a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems brings spells of heavy rain and strong winds across the UK.
The jet stream will shift southwards, steering weather fronts towards the country from Tuesday onwards. Southern and southwestern areas are expected to see some of the highest rainfall totals, while a rapidly deepening area of low pressure could bring the most impactful conditions from Thursday night into Friday.
How far north will the rain spread on Tuesday?
Tuesday began on a gloomy and damp note for much of the UK, with high pressure to the east continuing to lose its influence.
A weather front moving up from the south will bring cloud and rain, with some heavier outbreaks affecting central and southern England. During the afternoon, the rain will extend into the Midlands and parts of Wales before moving further east.
Brighter conditions should develop across Northern Ireland, west Wales and southwest England, although there will still be some showers. Temperatures will be close to, or slightly below, average for the time of year. A maximum of around 15°C is possible in the southwest, with temperatures generally in the low teens elsewhere. Under persistent rain, it will feel rather cold.
Tuesday’s rain will gradually clear eastwards, but there will be little respite before another weather front arrives from the west overnight.
Will there be windier conditions on Wednesday?
The next area of low pressure will bring another spell of rain and strengthening winds during Wednesday.
Heavy rain is expected initially across Wales and southwest England before spreading into the Midlands, southeast England, northern England and southern Scotland. Northern Ireland will also experience a wet start, while frequent showers are likely across western Scotland later in the day.
Coastal parts of Wales and southwest England could see gusts of around 50mph early on Wednesday. These blustery conditions will then move eastwards along the south coast, while northwest Scotland will also experience periods of strong wind.
Temperatures will generally range from 11°C to 15°C, although the combination of rain and wind will make it feel colder.
Could there be a brief quieter interlude?
Wednesday night could turn chilly in sheltered locations, with a touch of frost possible. Thursday should then begin on a brighter note for many areas.
Showers will gradually ease away from most places, although they are likely to continue across northwest Scotland. Winds will also become lighter for a time, allowing temperatures to reach around 15°C or 16°C.
This quieter spell will be short-lived. Cloud will increase from the southwest later on Thursday as the next area of low-pressure approaches, bringing another period of heavy rain and potentially the strongest winds of the week.
Will there be potentially disruptive weather on Friday?
A marked contrast between cold air moving through the Davis Strait and warmer subtropical air over the Atlantic will strengthen the jet stream. This is expected to help an area of low pressure deepen rapidly as it approaches the UK.
The first named storm of the season will impact the UK early on Friday morning. Storm Austen could see gusts exceeding 50mph across inland and coastal areas, with a risk of gusts reaching 70mph or more around some southwestern, southern and south-eastern coasts. The strongest winds are expected to move through during Friday morning, accompanied by heavy rain. A yellow warning has been issued for parts of the UK.
Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Tom Crabtree said: “While the exact track and position of Storm Austen is still being determined, what’s clear is that we have an impactful period of weather on the way and the potential for disruption in places, which has resulted in the system being named.
“Peak gusts in excess of 70mph are possible on the most exposed coastal areas, while 50-60mph are likely more widely within the warning area. Weather warnings are under constant review and could be updated as confidence increases, so it’s important to stay up-to-date with the forecast in the coming days.”
Rain will affect much of England and Wales on Friday, extending into southern and eastern Scotland and Northern Ireland. The heaviest rain will move north-eastwards, with northeast England and southeast Scotland potentially experiencing a particularly wet end to the day.
Will the unsettled weather continue into the weekend?
The low will gradually move away later on Friday, allowing a temporary ridge of high pressure to bring a drier and brighter start to Saturday for many.
However, another Atlantic low is expected to arrive later in the weekend. Taking a more northerly track, it will bring further rain and widely strong winds from Saturday night into Sunday, followed by blustery showers.
With rainfall totals potentially exceeding 100mm across parts of Wales and southern and southwestern England during the week, some minor impacts are possible where heavy rain falls in a short period. Keep up to date with the latest forecast and weather warnings as details develop.
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