After a notably dry, sunny and warm July for many parts of the UK, August is beginning with a more changeable pattern.
Low pressure will become more influential through the week ahead, bringing outbreaks of rain and showers at times. However, while this marks a shift away from the settled weather of July, the rainfall will not be evenly distributed.
July was the UK’s sunniest July on record and the second warmest July in the UK series. It was also exceptionally dry for many areas, with a large swathe of England and Wales recording its driest July on record. Southern England was particularly dry, seeing just 3% of its average rainfall, with only 1.9mm recorded through the whole month. For southern England, July was not only the driest July on record, but also its sunniest, warmest and driest calendar month on record.
Understandably, many will be looking for meaningful rain. This week will bring some, but much of it will fall across northern and western parts of the UK, rather than in the areas where rainfall deficits are greatest.
Rain most frequent in the north and west
Low pressure will bring a series of weather fronts and showers across the UK during the coming days. Rainfall totals will build up most noticeably across Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and higher parts of northern and western England. Some areas in the north and west could see more than 50mm of rain through the week, while parts of western Scotland may see more than 100mm.
By contrast, the rainfall signal is much weaker across southern England. Some places may see very little rain at all, with the showery nature of the week’s weather meaning that totals will vary considerably over relatively short distances.
Tuesday starts damp for Northern Ireland and much of Scotland, with heavy outbreaks of rain during the morning. Through the day, this rain will break up into showers for many, with showers also affecting western England and Wales. Northern Ireland could see some of these showers turn thundery during the afternoon, with the potential for heavy downpours.
⚠️ Yellow weather warning issued ⚠️
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 4, 2026
Thunderstorms across central and eastern Scotland
Tuesday 1200 – 2200
Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs
Stay #WeatherAware⚠️ pic.twitter.com/PUecgiHx5D
Further south and east, Tuesday will remain largely dry. Many parts of the Midlands, eastern England and southeast England can expect warm sunshine, although it will feel more humid than at the start of the week. The highest temperatures are likely to shift further east, with low 30s possible in eastern England. More widely, temperatures will be in the mid to high 20s, accompanied by more cloud and a south-westerly breeze.
A fresher feel from midweek
By Wednesday, a cold front will move through, bringing a change in wind direction and a fresher feel for many. Temperatures will drop closer to average, with west to north-westerly winds becoming established.
Persistent rain and low cloud are likely across the north of Scotland, where some downpours could be heavy, with a warning issued. Showery rain will move across the rest of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. Further south, conditions will again be drier, with sunshine for the Midlands, East Anglia and southeast England. Temperatures here will be a few degrees lower than on Tuesday, more likely reaching 25°C to 27°C. Further north and west, highs will generally be in the high teens or low 20s.
On Thursday, outbreaks of rain in the north will sink southwards into central parts of the UK, turning more showery as they do so. Some rain may reach eastern England, but central southern England is likely to see little meaningful rainfall. Brighter conditions will develop for the southwest, west Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland after earlier damp and gloomy weather. It will feel fresher again, with lower humidity and temperatures close to average, though slightly below average in the north and west.
READ MORE: July 2026 weather stats: A regional breakdown
Changeable into the weekend
Although low pressure remains nearby, it will not bring widespread rain everywhere. By the end of the week, another area of low pressure close to northern Scotland will push a weather front into Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, bringing further damp conditions. Further south, there may be one or two light showers, but very little meaningful rain.
The weekend continues the north-west versus south-east split. High pressure close to the south will help keep conditions drier and warmer there, with some sunny spells. Further north, rain or showers are likely at times on both Saturday and Sunday.
So, while this week brings a clear change from July’s very dry and sunny theme, it will not deliver rain equally across the country. Some northern and western areas will see substantial rainfall, but many southern areas, where rain is most needed, may remain largely dry. Looking further ahead, high pressure may become more influential again next week.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
