Snow is already featuring in the UK forecast as colder Arctic air spreads south, but for most places the coming days will be characterised by frost rather than significant snowfall.
While widespread snow to low levels is not in the current forecast, parts of Scotland could see snow over higher ground, with further wintry showers possible across the far north through the weekend.
So, where could see snow, and why can predicting exactly where it will fall be such a challenge?
Where and when could snow fall?
Cold air has moved south across the UK, with a brisk northerly wind making it feel particularly chilly.
Northern Scotland has the greatest chance of seeing snow, with wintry showers affecting northern and eastern Scotland and the Northern Isles. Snow is most likely above a few hundred metres, although temporary accumulations could occur as low as 200-300 metres. Around 2-5 cm could accumulate above 400 metres. Across the far north and northeast, showers will be frequent and blustery at times.
There is also the potential for thunderstorms and small hail across the Northern Isles and exposed parts of northern and northeastern Scotland this morning. Snow will principally affect higher ground, rather than bringing widespread disruption at lower levels. With cold air remaining in place, the risk of snow continues across parts of northern Scotland through the weekend.
What does it take for snow to fall?
Snow requires two key ingredients: cold air and moisture.
That combination is not always easy to achieve in the UK. Our maritime climate means the relatively warm seas surrounding the country can modify cold air before it reaches us. The prevailing south-westerly winds also commonly bring relatively mild and moist Atlantic air, favouring rain rather than snow.
A northerly airflow can bring colder Arctic air towards the UK, while easterly winds can draw cold continental air from Europe. If that cold air encounters moisture, either from a weather front or showers developing over the sea, precipitation has a greater chance of falling as snow.
Altitude matters too. Air cools as it rises over hills and mountains, which is why higher ground can receive snow while nearby lower levels experience rain or sleet.
Why is snow so difficult to forecast?
Forecasting snow is particularly challenging because the difference between rain, sleet and snow can come down to very small changes in atmospheric conditions.
A slight difference in temperature or wind direction can alter the precipitation type. The intensity of precipitation matters too. Heavier precipitation can cool the air close to the surface, sometimes allowing snow to reach the ground, while lighter snow can melt on its journey through warmer air and arrive as rain or sleet.
This means that while forecasts may identify the potential for a colder spell well in advance, confidence about exactly where, when and how much snow will fall generally becomes much higher only within a few days of an event.
https://www.youtube.com/watch/2Ei9WGGizEM?start=0How does the Met Office forecast snow?
Met Office meteorologists combine high-resolution computer models with radar observations and expert judgement to continually refine the forecast. This helps forecasters assess not only whether snow might fall, but also whether it is likely to settle and cause impacts.
That distinction matters. Even relatively small amounts of snow or ice can affect transport networks, infrastructure and everyday travel, making accurate forecasts particularly important for organisations such as transport operators and local authorities responsible for treating roads.
Where snow has the potential to cause disruption, the Met Office can issue National Severe Weather Warnings according to the likelihood and potential impact of the event.
For now, the snow risk is focused mainly on northern Scotland and particularly higher ground, but forecasts will continue to be refined as the colder air moves across the UK.
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