Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2013

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Sonamu (01W) 03-08 January 45/50 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Shanshan (02W) 19-23 February 25/35 knots Shanshan only briefly reached tropical storm status according to JMA and just one forecast was verified.
Yagi (03W) 08-12 June 55/45 knots Track forecast errors were near to or slightly above last season's average. There was a slight left-of-track bias in forecasts.
Leepi (04W) 17-20 June 35/40 knots Track forecast errors were near to or slightly below last season's average.
Bebinca (05W) 20-24 June 35/40 knots Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average, although skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Rumbia (06W) 27 June-02 July 65/50 knots Track forecasts were very good with low errors and high skill scores.
Soulik (07W) 07-14 July 125/100 knots Track forecasts were very good with low errors and high skill scores.
Cimaron (08W) 15-18 July 40/40 knots Cimaron was only briefly a tropical storm and had a slight left-of-track bias in its forecast track.
Jebi (09W) 31 July-03 August 60/55 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Mangkhut (10W) 05-07 August 40/40 knots This was a short-lived storm, but track errors were low.
Utor (11W) 09-15 August 130/105 knots Track forecast errors were very low for this typhoon.
Trami (12W) 17-22 August 75/60 knots Track errors were very low and skill scores very high for this storm.
13W 17 August 25/- knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Kong-rey (14W) 26-31 August 55/55 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm, but the model weakened it too soon.
Yutu (-) 01-03 September -/35 knots Early forecasts had an erroneous north-eastward movement, but short lead time errors were low.
Toraji (15W) 01-03 September 50/50 knots Track errors were large due to a failure to capture the rapid north-eastward acceleration.
Man-yi (16W) 12-16 September 60/60 knots Track errors were low. The recurvature and landfall were very well predicted.
Usagi (17W) 16-22 September 140/110 knots There was a slight right-of-track bias, but track errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER high. Unlike some other models, erroneous landfall over Hong Kong was not predicted by the global model.
18W 18 September 25/- knots 18W did not reach tropical storm strength and no forecasts were verified.
Pabuk (19W) 21-26 September 90/60 knots Longer lead time errors were large due to the slow and left-of-track bias. However, short period track errors were low.
Wutip (20W) 26-30 September 90/70 knots Track errors were a little above last season's average due to a slow bias.
Sepat (21W) 30 September-02 October 35/40 knots Sepat was only brifly a tropical storm and track errors were low.
Fitow (22W) 30 September-07 October 90/75 knots There was a large disparity between models for early forecasts of Fitow. ECMWF had a northerly track whilst the Met Office model turned the storm westwards. Fitow did indeed turn west, but not as sharply as some Met Office model forecasts. However, track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Danas (23W) 03-08 October 125/100 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER high.
Nari (24W) 08-15 October 105/75 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Wipha (25W) 10-16 October 115/90 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Francisco (26W) 16-26 October 140/105 knots Longer lead time errors were large due to the failure to interact Francisco with Lekima correctly. However, short lead time errors were very low and skill scores high.
27W 19-20 October 25/- knots 27W did not reach tropical storm strength and no forecasts were verified.
Lekima (28W) 20-26 October 140/115 knots Forecasts for Lekima were mostly excellent with low track forecast errors and high skill scores.
Krosa (29W) 29 October-04 November 100/80 knots Track forecast errors were a little higher than last season's average due to a left-of-track bias.
30W 03-16 November 35/30 knots 30W only briefly (twice) reached tropical storms strength according to JTWC, but as a tropical depression persisted for a long time across the western Pacific and Bay of Bengal.
Haiyan (31W) 03-11 November 170/125 knots The track of Typhoon Haiyan was very well predicted with track errors well below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER very high. The location of landfall over the Philippines was well predicted days in advance, but with a slight timing error (too slow) at longer lead times.
Podul (32W) 14-15 November 25/35 knots Podul was briefly a named storm according to JMA, but not a tropical storm according to JTWC. No forecasts were verified.
33W 03-04 December 30/- knots 33W did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.

North-west Pacific observed tracks in 2013
North-west Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Alvin (01E) 15-17 May 45 knots Track forecast errors were high for this storm, but the storm was very short-lived.
Barbara (02E) 29-30 May 65 knots Barbara was short-lived and few forecasts were verified.
Cosme (03E) 23-27 June 75 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to or below last season's average, although there was a fast bias at longer lead times.
Dalila (04E) 30 June-07 July 65 knots Track forecasts were very good with low errors and high skill scores.
Erick (05E) 04-09 July 70 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores positive.
Flossie (06E) 25-30 July 60 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Gil (07E) 30 July-07 August 75 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this storm. The model predicted dissipation soon soon.
Henriette (08E) 03-11 August 90 knots Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average for this storm. The model predicted dissipation soon soon.
Ivo (09E) 22-25 August 40 knots Ivo was only briefly a tropical storm.
Juliette (10E) 28-29 August 45 knots Juliette was only briefly a tropical storm.
Kiko (11E) 31 August-02 September 60 knots Kiko was fairly short-lived and just a few forecasts were verified.
Lorena (12E) 05-08 September 40 knots Lorena only briefly reached tropical storm status.
Manuel (13E) 13-20 September 65 knots Track errors were above last season's average due to a slow bias. However, the model predicted the regeneration of Manuel into a hurricane after its first landfall well.
Narda (14E) 06-10 October 55 knots Narda was relatively short-lived and only a few forecasts were verified.
Octave (15E) 13-15 October 55 knots Octave was a fairly brief storm. The model tended to weaken the storm too rapidly.
Priscilla (16E) 14-17 October 40 knots Priscilla was only briefly a tropical storm, but forecasts were good.
Raymond (17E) 20-30 October 110 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average, but the model predicted the turn away from the Mexican coast early in the storm's lifetime well.
Sonia (18E) 01-04 November 40 knots Sonia was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Pewa (01C) 16-25 August 65/55 knots Track forecast errors were high for this storm due to a left-of-track bias. The storm was also very weak in the model.
Unala (02C) 19 August 35/35 knots Unala was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
03C 19-20 August 30/- knots 03C did not attain tropical storm status.

* Pewa, Unala and 03C all moved into the North-West Pacific region

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2013

North-east Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Andrea (01L) 05-07 June 55 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for Andrea.
Barry (02L) 17-21 June 40 knots Barry was short-lived as a tropical storm and only one forecast was verified.
Chantal (03L) 08-11 July 55 knots There was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts and a tendency to dissipate the storm too soon.
Dorian (04L) 24-27 July 50 knots There was a slight fast bias in forecasts and a tendency to dissipate the storm too soon.
Erin (05L) 15-18 August 35 knots Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores high for this storm.
Fernand (06L) 25-26 August 45 knots Fernand was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Gabrielle (07L) 04-13 September 50 knots Track errors were below last season's average for this storm.
08L 06-07 September 30 knots 08L did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Humberto (09L) 08-19 September 75 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER high for this storm. The various turns by the storm were well predicted by the model.
Ingrid (10L) 12-17 September 75 knots Track errors were near to last season's average for this storm. The turn towards land was well signalled, although landfall location was a little too far north.
Jerry (11L) 29 September-03 October 45 knots Track forecasts for Jerry were mostly higher than last season's average.
Karen (12L) 03-06 October 55 knots Track forecast errors were mostly lower than last season's average.
Lorenzo (13L) 21-24 October 45 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Melissa (14L) 18-22 November 55 knots Track errors were low for this storm as its north-eastward turn and acceleration were well predicted.
Unnamed (15L) 03-07 December 55 knots Track errors were below last season's average for this subtropical storm added to the database in post season reanalysis.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2013

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
(forecast track charts for Global and South Asia models shown)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Mahasen (01B) 10-16 May 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times and high at long lead times for the global model. There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts. South Asia Model track forecast errors were larger than the global model.
Phailin (02B) 09-12 October 140/110 knots The formation of Cyclone Phailin was well predicted days in advance and track forecast errors once the storm had formed were very low.
30W 03-16 November 35/30 knots 30W only briefly (twice) reached tropical storms strength according to JTWC, but as a tropical depression persisted for a long time across the western Pacific and Bay of Bengal.
03A 08-11 November 40/30 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this region, but forecasts did not predict landfall.
Helen (04B) 18-22 November 60/55 knots Some early runs analysed Helen poorly resulting in large forecast errors.
Lehar (05B) 23-28 November 75/75 knots Early poor analyses resulted in forecasts with a northward bias. However, later forecasts were better with small track forecast errors.
Madi (06B) 06-12 December 70/65 knots Track forecast errors were mostly larger than last year's average due to a premature sharp turn southwestwards. However, this turn did eventually occur.

North Indian observed tracks in 2013

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.