Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2021-22

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ana (07S) 22-25 January 990 mb, 50/45 knots Ana was briefly classified as a tropical storm with few forecasts verified.
Batsirai (08S) 27 January - 08 February 934 mb, 125/105 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values, although there was a left-of-track bias in some forecasts.
Cliff (10S) 04-06 February 994 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were high mostly due to a slow initial forecast.
Dumako (12S) 13-15 February 993 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were a little above the recent mean values.
Emnati (13S) 15-24 February 947 mb, 115/95 knots Track forecast errors were very low apart from long lead times which were near to the recent mean values. Long lead time forecasts had a right-of-track bias which resulted in landfall predictions too far north in Madagascar.
Fezile (97S) 16-18 February 980 mb, 30/45 knots No forecasts were verified for Fezile.
16S 25-27 February 989 mb, 40/30 knots 16S was a short-lived storm which underwent Fujiwhara interaction with Vernon before being absorbed.
Gombe (19S) 07-12 March 960 mb, 100/90 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent mean.
Halima (22S) 23 March-01 April 939 mb, 120/105 knots Apart from the early forecasts, track forecast errors were low and the unusual track was well predicted.
Issa (92S) 12-13 April 986 mb, 40/50 knots Track forecast errors were a little above the recent mean values.
Jasmine (24S) 23-27 April 982 mb, 55/60 knots Track forecast errors were high for this storm due to a tendency to slow and turn the storm back north.
Karim (25S) 06-11 May 982 mb, 60/55 knots Track forecast errors were a little higher than the recent mean values due to a left-of-track bias.

Tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2021-22

Australian (90-160°E) - including Indonesia and PNG
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Paddy (01S)

22-24 November 995 mb, 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Teratai (02S) 01-09 December 1003 mb, 35/35 knots Teratai was only briefly a tropical storm with track forecasts a little slow.
Ruby (03P) 10-15 December 975 mb, 70/60 knots Track forecasts were slow resulting in large errors.
Seth (04P) 31 December - 02 January 983 mb, 55/50 knots Seth was only briefly a tropical storm.
Tiffany (06P) 09-12 January 989 mb, 65/50 knots Track forecasts were mostly near to or below the recent mean values.
09P 31 January - 03 February 995 mb, 35/35 knots 09P was short-lived with few forecasts verified.
Vernon (14S) 24 February - 04 March 950 mb, 115/105 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean. The turn south was well predicted.
Anika (15S) 25 February - 02 March 986 mb, 55/50 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts. Track forecast errors were near to or above the recent mean.
17S 02-03 March 986 mb, 55/50 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts. Track forecast errors were near to or above the recent mean.
Billy (20S) 13-17 March 991 mb, 60/45 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Charlotte (21S) 20-24 March 956 mb, 90/90 knots Track forecast errors were mixed for this storm.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Cody (05P) 08-14 January 971 mb, 50/70 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values.
Dovi (11P) 09-11 February 940 mb, 90/95 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values.
Eva (18P) 03-04 March 995 mb, 40/35 knots The track of this short-lived storm was well forecast.
Fili (23P) 04-08 April 977 mb, 55/60 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent mean values.
Gina (26P) 18-21 May 998 mb, 35/40 knots A right-of-track bias produced track errors a little higher than the recent mean values.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2021-22

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2021-22

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Uba (01Q)

10-13 December 996 mb, 35 knots Uba was a short-lived subtropical storm with few forecasts verified.
Yakecan (02Q) 17-20 May 990 mb, -/50 knots The track of Yakecan was well predicted by the global model.

Tropical cyclone names

South Atlantic observed tracks in 2021-22

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.