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, convection and monsoon representation.  More realistic tropical cyclones with deeper, better defined structures.  Reduction in unrealistic precipitation “spikes”.  Improved near surface temperature ranges.  Global ensemble forecasts extended from 7 to 10 days.  UK regional models (UKV and MOGREPS UK)  PS47

MET/2/2 Training MET/2/2/1 MO College MET/2/2/2 Conferences MET/2/3 Events MET/2/4 Data MET/2/4/1 Data Collection MET/2/4/1/1 Surface MET/2/4/1/1/a Daily Registers MET/2/4/1/1/b Precipitation MET/2/4/1/1/c Sunshine MET/2/4/1/1/d Lustrum Sheets MET/2/4/1/1/e Temperature MET/2/4/1/1/f Pressure MET/2/4/1

are likely to be associated with a ridge of high pressure over western Siberia during June, with associated transport of warm air across the Barents and Kara seas during this month. Other areas of the Arctic tended to see cooler conditions. Extent ( x10 6 km 2 ) 10 8 6 4 1981-2010 Mean 2002 2003 2004 2005

By Sunday, colder air from the Arctic arrives across northern Scotland, and we’ll see the start of some unsettled weather for all parts as an area of low pressure arrives from the Atlantic.   A Yellow National Severe Weather Warning for snow and ice has been issued for the north of Scotland

-member tropical cyclone tracks (left), probability plume of the same (centre) and box-whisker plots of central wind-speed and pressure (right). The solid cyan line shows the observations and previous forecasts to help gauge forecast performance of this system so far, top panel shows number of members

surfaces reach the sea in cliffs, for which the area is famous, but with a few areas of sand dunes as well. The plateaux are deeply incised by rivers and many of the lower river valleys have been submerged to form picturesque estuaries such as the Dart and Tamar. The highest areas coincide

-2nd lowest July extent on record, the lowest having been 7.03 million sq km in 2020. Figure 3. Average July Arctic sea ice extent according to the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) 1.2 dataset (Rayner et al., 2003). The average rate of sea ice loss during July 2021

and Scotland on Saturday afternoon.  “Freezing rain forms when rain freezes on impact as it hits a cold surface – it is quite rare in the UK and when it does occur, the impacts can be severe.  Many will know it as black ice and the danger is it forms quickly, is difficult to see and is incredibly

, there will be more cloud which will be followed by the band of rain slowly moving southeastward through Sunday night and Monday.  Heavy rain brings risk of flooding  Jonathan Day, Flood Duty Manager at the Environment Agency, said: “Significant surface water flooding impacts are possible in parts

Low pressure is firmly in charge, with sunny spells and showers throughout. There will be some heavy showers and thunderstorms at times for central, and particularly southern areas of the UK, until midweek. A Yellow National Severe Weather Warning for thunderstorms has been issued for parts