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their research using the links on their extreme weather profile card as a starting point. Use the prompt questions on the slide which include: • What makes a weather event extreme? • How might it affect people? (businesses, infrastructure, school, social lives) • • • • old, very young etc.) • Who should people

to 10°N) regions. Probabilities are for 5 categories referred to as: very dry, dry, average, wet and very wet. The category boundaries are defined from 1961-1990 observations, such that the climatological probability for each category in that period is by definition 0.2 (20%). The strongest forecast

Current Status: 3-Month Outlook January to March - Rainfall The latter part of the West Africa Monsoon season was active with many areas wetter than in September. Conditions have been wetter than normal in Central Africa with the Democratic Republic of Congo very wet in November. Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya

percentiles September October November Notes: The percentiles shown in the map indicate a ranking of rainfall, with the 0th percentile being the driest and the 100th percentile being the wettest in the 1981-2010 climatology. Green and dark green shading represent values above the 80th (Wet) and 90th (Very

Global: April to January Overview 3 MENA, Caribbean and British Overseas Territories Current Status and Outlook - Rainfall Current Status: Following a widely very dry April in the Levant, rainfall in May and June was normal, although climatologically very little rainfall occurs during this period. Over

of the Northern Hemisphere. Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Much Very Likely More Much Likely Likely Very Likely More Likely Likely Climate Outlook Global: April to January Overview 6 Current Status Current Status maps MENA – Middle East MENA – North Africa Caribbean British Overseas

as parts of central and northern England, freezing rain is forecast. Chief Meteorologist Will Lang said, “Saturday’s weather brings a range of winter hazards with very dangerous travelling conditions likely in some places.  In addition to snow, freezing rain will bring widespread ice to northern England

- Rainfall Current Status: In Central Asia rainfall has been mostly normal over the last three months with September being typically a dry season. ​ Many parts of South and Southeast Asia were wet over the last three months. An exception to this was India, which was very dry in parts during October

and colder than normal conditions are likely in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. Elsewhere, predictions are more finely balanced and largely indistinguishable from climatological odds. 3-Month Outlook January to March - Temperature Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Very Likely Likely Likely Very Likely

climatology. Green and dark green shading represent values above the 80th (Wet) and 90th (Very Wet) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark brown indicate rainfall below the 20th (Dry) and 10th (Very Dry) percentile, with respect to the 1981-2010 climatology. Grey areas on the map mask