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fraction of model values lying above the observed threshold. If the observed value of the UK annual mean temperature anomaly is higher than the threshold percentile then a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the model data above this threshold and an exceedance probability found from

and regional NWP models. In the global model there are changes to improve boundary-layer processes, the representation of cloud, radiation, warm rain microphysics, and deep convection, whilst in the regional models there are improvements to the treatment of lying snow, sub-grid turbulence and ice

build-ups of snow of up to 5 to 10 cms while others nearby could see very little. Parts of Scotland could see well in excess of 20 cm of lying snow. Further snow is expected on Thursday and Friday, as Storm Emma (named by our partners the Portuguese Met Service) pushes into southern England from

defence assets where required, working with partners and present in those communities that have experienced flooding, looking to minimise the impact on residents. “We urge people to stay safe on the coast and to remember to take extreme care on coastal paths and promenades. Flooding of low-lying coastal

or calm weather, strong winds or varying wave heights – all have an impact on the viability of operations at sea. Currently, most offshore industry companies rely on deterministic forecasts that give them a single prediction. The appeal of these forecasts lies in the fact that they are easy

of interest, for example, future flood or heat stress risk. Products that combine UKCP18 projections information with other data to create new or updated impacts information derived from UKCP18 – so-called derived products – are needed to fill this information gap. The development of derived products lies

phones, or touching metal objects. If you’re caught outside with no shelter, crouch low with your feet together and hands over your ears, however, don’t lie flat on the ground. After the storm, be cautious of downed power lines and report them to authorities. Check your property for damage and avoid

. Across northern Scotland, lying snow cover resulted in some particularly low minima, with –16.0 C recorded at Altnaharra, Sutherland on 9 March, and daytime temperatures struggling to rise above freezing. Further south, a mild second half of the month brought temperatures back more in line

. Some areas could see a marked build-ups of snow, with accumulations of 5 to 10 cm, while others nearby could see very little. Parts of Scotland could see well in excess of 20 cm of lying snow. Further snow is expected on Thursday and Friday, as Storm Emma (named by our partners the Portuguese Met

southern England, where there was 19 cm lying at Odiham (Hampshire) by evening and the temperature only reached -0.5 °C at Okehampton (Devon). Sleet, snow and hail showers, accompanied locally by thunder, affected the north-east with 16 cm of snow reported at Copley (County Durham). It was mainly