A significant heatwave is developing across large parts of Europe, with temperatures forecast to climb well above average for the time of year.
Across parts of Spain, France and Italy, temperatures are expected to rise into the high 30s, with some locations likely to exceed 40°C during the coming days.
This heat is not occurring in isolation, and its influence will extend towards the UK. However, rather than delivering widespread hot and settled weather across the country, the UK will sit on the boundary between this very warm continental air and cooler, more unsettled conditions to the northwest.
Why Europe is turning so hot
The developing heatwave is being driven by a strong area of high pressure building over continental Europe. This high pressure is promoting widespread sinking air, which suppresses cloud formation, allows for prolonged sunshine and leads to increasing temperatures through compressional heating.
As this process continues through the week, temperatures across much of central and western Europe will rise steadily, pushing well beyond seasonal norms. In many cases, temperatures are expected to reach around 10°C above average for mid-June, highlighting the unusual nature of this early summer heat event.
The extent of this heat is striking, covering large parts of central and northwestern Europe, and bringing conditions that are considered extreme compared to long-term climatology.
The UK caught between two air masses
While Europe heats up, the UK will experience a more complex and variable pattern. Low pressure to the northwest will continue to feed in areas of cloud, rain and fresher air.
At the same time, the expanding plume of warmer air from the continent will attempt to move northwards. This sets up a sharp contrast across the UK, with a so-called baroclinic zone – a boundary between warm and cool air masses – positioned across or close to the country.
Along this boundary, weather fronts will develop and move slowly, bringing outbreaks of rain, particularly to northern and western areas. This will result in a “waving” front, where bands of rain ebb and flow over similar areas over several days.
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Rain in the north and west, warmth in the south and east
The influence of these weather fronts will bring repeated spells of rain across northern and western parts of the UK. This is likely to be most persistent at times over hills, particularly in areas such as northwest England, parts of Wales and southern Scotland.
Rainfall will vary from day to day, with some periods of heavier and more prolonged rain interspersed with drier intervals. Despite this, overall weekly rainfall totals are not expected to be especially high for most places, although some exposed locations may still see notable accumulations.
In contrast, southern and eastern areas will see more in the way of dry weather, with increasing amounts of sunshine as the week progresses. Temperatures here will rise steadily, with highs reaching the mid to high 20s, and potentially into the low 30s by the end of the working week.
This creates a pronounced north–west to south–east temperature gradient across the UK, with much cooler conditions persisting in the northwest while the southeast becomes increasingly hot.
Increasing heat and sunshine towards the weekend
By Friday, the contrast across the UK is expected to be at its most marked. Northern and western areas will remain cloudier, with further outbreaks of rain at times, while the southeast enjoys prolonged sunshine and hot conditions.
Temperatures in parts of eastern England could peak around 30–32°C, representing some of the highest values of the year so far.
Into the weekend, the influence of high pressure from the continent is expected to edge further north. This will bring more settled and drier conditions to many northern areas, along with a rise in temperatures and more widespread sunshine.
However, a weak cold front may also move south-eastwards, introducing slightly fresher conditions for a time, particularly after the peak heat.
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Risk of thunderstorms in warm, humid air
As temperatures rise, especially across southern and eastern parts, the air will also become increasingly humid. This combination of heat and humidity will introduce the potential for thunderstorms.
The greatest chance of thunderstorms is expected across eastern England and nearby continental areas, where the atmosphere will contain significant energy to support their development.
If storms do occur, they could be locally intense, bringing heavy downpours, strong gusts and frequent lightning. However, it is important to emphasise that thunderstorms are not guaranteed, and their exact timing and location remain uncertain.
Growing uncertainty into next week
Looking further ahead, confidence in the forecast decreases into early next week. The key uncertainty lies in the exact position and movement of areas of low-pressure and high-pressure around the UK.
One possible scenario would allow the hot air from the continent to spread more widely across the UK, leading to even higher temperatures. In this case, some locations could potentially see temperatures pushing into the mid-30s.
An alternative scenario would see low-pressure move across the UK, allowing cooler air to return from the northwest and bringing temperatures back closer to average.
The most likely outcome currently lies somewhere between these extremes, with temperatures peaking over the weekend or early next week before easing slightly thereafter.
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