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established across northern Scotland and perhaps clipping the east coast of northern England at times. It will be another cold night on Friday, with a clear and frosty start to Saturday for many. Another area of low pressure arrives into the west through Saturday making uncertain progress east
a frosty start in some areas on the 25th, but some sunshine for most, albeit with showers clipping far eastern and far western coastal counties for a time. The 26th saw bands of showers from the north Midlands southward to start the day, these sweeping south-eastwards, coalescing for a time into longer
2020) UKCP18 technical note: Clipping and baseline advice on Land Strand 1 data in UKCP18 (March 2019). The Probabilistic Projections were updated in August 2022, and there may be some small changes to the figures within this document. Please refer to the table above for the latest documentation
, and much of Northern Ireland. This means dry, sunny, and increasingly hot conditions for many. However, the northwest of the UK, particularly western Scotland, has drawn the short straw, with frontal systems occasionally clipping the edge of the high. This brings more cloud and some light rain
for other UKCP Probabilistic variables. Clipping of the pdfs and cdfs is also performed, to remove extreme values that may be less physically plausible than those within the bulk of the probability distribution. Reduced confidence in such tail values may arise, for example, from enhanced sensitivity
- FAQ on UKCP Local (2.2km) Update, published in 2021 • Technical notes and reports - UKCP18 technical note: Clipping and baseline advice on Land Strand 1 data in UKCP18 - UKCP technical note: Issue with UKCP Local (2.2km) simulation data, published in 2020 • Related technical notes - Hadley Centre
- FAQ on UKCP Local (2.2km) Update, published in 2021 • Technical notes and reports - UKCP18 technical note: Clipping and baseline advice on Land Strand 1 data in UKCP18 - UKCP technical note: Issue with UKCP Local (2.2km) simulation data, published in 2020 • Related technical notes - Hadley Centre
than those within the bulk of the probability distribution. Clipping is applied at 5th and 95th percentiles. • While not a limitation, it is important to note that in summer, 1-day precipitation at 50-year return level remains close to the baseline while other UKCP products show a significant
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