Met Office 10-Day Trend: High pressure in charge with hot weekend on the way

This high is currently centred to the south and east of the UK, bringing widespread sunshine and rising temperatures. However, there are signs of change on the horizon, with a more unsettled pattern potentially developing into next week.

High pressure in charge, for now

The current setup sees high pressure firmly in control, particularly across England, Wales, and much of Northern Ireland. This means dry, sunny, and increasingly hot conditions for many. However, the northwest of the UK, particularly western Scotland, has drawn the short straw, with frontal systems occasionally clipping the edge of the high. This brings more cloud and some light rain at times on Thursday and Friday.

As we move through the weekend, the high pressure begins to shift eastwards. This subtle change allows the jet stream to meander and strengthen slightly, introducing a trough that could help frontal systems edge closer from the Atlantic. While these systems are likely to remain offshore through most of the weekend, there is a chance they could begin to affect parts of Northern Ireland by late Sunday.

How hot will the heatwave be relative to a 'normal' July day?

The below charts indicate that many areas could see temperatures 10°C above the seasonal average 🌡️

It also highlights a westward focus on where the peak of the heat will build pic.twitter.com/HGDSUax78f

— Met Office (@metoffice) July 9, 2025

Friday: heat becomes more widespread

By Friday, the heat becomes more extensive. Temperature anomalies show a significant rise above average across much of the UK, with particularly intense heat in parts of Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, the West Midlands, and the southwest. Even parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland will see temperatures well above average.

There may be some low cloud to start the day, especially around the Irish Sea and eastern coastal areas, but this should burn back quickly. By the afternoon, most places will see clear skies and strong sunshine, with highs reaching 31-32°C in some central and southern areas.

Weekend: peak of the heat

Saturday and Sunday are expected to be the hottest days of this spell. High pressure remains in place, bringing widespread settled conditions and intense sunshine. Many areas will see temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s, with the West Midlands, southwest England, and parts of central England most likely to reach or exceed 30°C.

There is a chance of some low cloud lingering in the far northeast of Scotland on Saturday, but for most, it will be a dry and sunny day. UV levels remain high, so it’s important to take care if you’re out and about.

Sunday brings a similar picture, although eastern areas may see slightly lower temperatures due to an easterly flow and the potential for some cloud pushing in from the North Sea. Nevertheless, it will still be very warm, with widespread sunshine across much of the country.

READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Heatwaves, marine anomalies and a satellite launch

Early next week: signs of change

As we move into Monday and Tuesday, the weather pattern begins to shift. Frontal systems from the Atlantic may start to push further east, bringing more cloud and the potential for rain, particularly in the west. However, there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, with different models suggesting varying speeds and extents of this change.

Our global model suggests a more progressive push of these systems across the UK, while others keep them further west. This means that while some areas, especially in the west, may see a breakdown in the settled weather, central and eastern parts of the UK could remain dry and warm for a little longer.

Temperatures begin to ease

With the arrival of more cloud and the potential for rain, temperatures are expected to ease slightly from Monday onwards. The chance of reaching 30°C diminishes, particularly across Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, central and southeastern England may still see isolated spots reaching the high 20s or even 30°C early in the week.

By Tuesday, the likelihood of widespread intense heat reduces significantly, marking the beginning of a cooler and more unsettled phase.

READ MORE: Understanding the Foehn effect and its impacts

Mid to late next week: a messy transition

Looking further ahead into the middle and latter part of next week, the forecast becomes more uncertain. Spaghetti plots, used to visualise the range of possible outcomes from different model runs, show a wide spread in the position of frontal systems. Some suggest a quicker transition to unsettled weather, while others keep high pressure in place for longer.

The most likely scenario appears to be a northwest-southeast split. The northwest will be more prone to cloud, rain, and cooler conditions, while the southeast may hold on to drier and warmer weather for a little longer.

A brief dip before warming again?

Despite the expected dip in temperatures and the arrival of more unsettled weather, this may only be a temporary blip. Box and whisker plots, used to show the range of temperature forecasts, indicate a potential rebound in temperatures later in the 10-day period, particularly in the south.

While there is still a spread in the data, suggesting some uncertainty, the general trend points towards a return to warmer conditions as we head into the latter part of July. Northern areas may not see the same intensity of heat, but southern parts of the UK could once again experience temperatures well above average.

What’s driving the heat?

This weekend’s heat is largely homegrown, with warm air drifting in from the Atlantic and circulating around the high-pressure system. This differs from previous heatwaves, where hot air was drawn up from Iberia. However, as we look further ahead, there is a chance that the Azores High could extend northwards again, potentially bringing another surge of heat from the south later in July.

To summarise, the outlook for the weekend is as follows:

• Friday: Mostly dry and sunny, with increasing heat. Highs of 29–32°C in central and southern areas.
• Weekend: Peak of the heat. Widespread sunshine and temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s. Some low cloud possible in the northeast.
• Early next week: Signs of change. Frontal systems may bring cloud and rain to the west. Temperatures begin to ease.
• Mid to late next week: Unsettled conditions likely in the northwest. Southeast may stay drier and warmer. Temperatures could rise again later in the period.

Where will see the heat this weekend?

Here's Honor with all the details 👇 pic.twitter.com/AREa44gD6y

— Met Office (@metoffice) July 9, 2025

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