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(SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific remain indicative on an ongoing El Niño event. Now past its peak, the current El Niño event is likely to weaken further with a transition to ENSOneutral very likely (83%) April-June. There is an increasing chance (62%) of a transition to La Niña in June-August. El

, have been wet or very wet over the last three months, as well as parts of parts of Southeast Asia in July and August. China has experienced mixed conditions for the last three months with south-eastern areas dry or very dry during August. Outlook: Over the next three months, above normal rainfall

This warm weather will extend to parts of Northern Ireland, as well as parts of central and western England and Wales on Friday. There’s very much a north/south divide in the weather, with unsettled conditions in the south but drier, warmer conditions in the north. There’s a marked east/west split

caused widespread flash-flooding and disruption to the road and rail networks, with Falkirk, Fife, Perth, Edinburgh and the Aberdeenshire area all affected by flashflooding. Several schools were closed across Aberdeenshire, and there were reports of lightning strikes. The very heavy rain from

Storms are very complex systems that play an important role in the transport of heat and energy across the world. Therefore, they can be affected by small changes in regional and global patterns. Some influences on storm activity that are likely to be affected by climate change are: Sea surface

% becoming 50% from late morning Low cloud and visibility: Good or very good becoming moderate or poor in rain, very poor within cloud, which will be extensive from 500m early morning, occasionally so thereafter. Check our weather forecast every day to get the most accurate and up to date information https

edge, this most likely over Wales and the Midlands. Here accumulations of 5-10 cm are likely widely, with 15-25 cm in some places, especially hills, and perhaps up to 30 cm very locally. An Amber warning has been issued where the greatest risk of disruption is likely on Thursday night into Friday

Welcome to the Met Office, how are you finding things so far? Everyone has been very helpful throughout science, management and every area I have met. What are your initial impressions? After working for 25 years at KNMI (the Dutch meteorological service) in climate science, it is a change

. Outlook for Sunday Sunday continues the unsettled theme, with a mixture of rain bands and showers, some locally heavy with thunderstorms, moving generally northwards. Between these, there will be windows of drier, brighter, or sunny weather. Further very heavy rain may arrive into the far south

Nowcasting is a method used for very short-range forecasting. Directly connected to observed weather, it involves mapping the current weather and using its estimated speed and the movement of its direction to carry out forecasts with a lead time of zero to six hours. The technique is considered