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• Microsoft Word - MetO_Atlantic_tropical_storm_forecast_verification_1Dec2013_v0.doc

  (Table 1). It should first be highlighted that the observed ACE index in a given year is, by forecast definition, expected to lie within the 70% prediction interval approximately 7 out of 10 times. Thus in some years the observed number will lie outside of this range. However, in 2013, the observed ACE

• Microsoft Word - 2009_verification_report_branded.doc

  , an advantage that is not readily available from statistical methods. To generate the ensemble, the starting conditions for the forecast are varied slightly to make 41 individual predictions (known as ensemble members). The forecast probability that the number of storms will lie in predefined ranges

• flooding-in-cumbria-december-2015---met-office.pdf

  . In total low-lying coastal areas received only around 50mm or less, however much of the high ground received 100 to 150mm, with some locations exceeding 150mm. The wettest areas were across the central Cumbrian fells, which received 200 to 300mm of rainfall and in a few locations 300 to 400mm. Upland

• cospar_bingham_psw1_00009_18.pdf

  storm forecasts compared to reference forecast (frequency of occurrence over preceding 180 days) (RPSS: relative improvement of probability forecast over reference forecast in predicting category which observation fell into) • Point averages for day 1 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 2-4

• Met Office 10-day trend: A change from calm to unsettled weather

  breaks of sunshine. The high pressure has been slow-moving, remaining in place for the rest of the current week. This stability has resulted in misty and murky conditions, with temperatures creeping into the low teens for many areas. The reason for this stubborn high pressure lies high in the atmosphere

• Factsheets

  Kingdom lies in the latitude of predominantly westerly winds where depressions and fronts move bands of cloud and rain eastwards or north-eastwards across the North Atlantic. Between the depressions there are often small mobile anticyclones bringing welcome fair weather. Climate of the British

• Met Office 10-day trend: A change from calm to unsettled weather

  breaks of sunshine. The high pressure has been slow-moving, remaining in place for the rest of the current week. This stability has resulted in misty and murky conditions, with temperatures creeping into the low teens for many areas. The reason for this stubborn high pressure lies high in the atmosphere

• September 2010 Sea Ice Outlook

  anomaly is then added to the HadISST dataset 1989-2002 climatology to give a prediction for September 2010 of 5.5 million square kilometres. Despite the known model deficiencies, it is encouraging that this estimate lies in the range of the June Outlook report projections. Figure 2: GloSea4 forecast

• wiser0168_daraja_impact_case_study_1219.pdf

  services and city infrastructure. Many of these communities, however, are in low-lying areas or next to rivers. This makes them extremely vulnerable to flooding, which can destroy homes and assets or even endanger life. Climate change means the threat is likely to increase, as some countries see

• New warning issued for heavy rain on Friday into Saturday morning

  , so it’s important for everyone to know their flood risk. “If there is flooding, we want to make sure people are doing all they can to keep themselves safe. We want to remind people to keep away from swollen riverbanks and do not to drive or walk through flood waters as you don’t know what lies