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effect was important except for in the summer months. Altitude and terrain shape variables were obviously very important for days of snow lying and falling, as well as for rainfall intensity and the greatest annual 5-day rainfall total. The independent variables used in the regression model for each

events Extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001) is used in climate research to derive probability distributions that describe the expected occurrence of rare events (e.g. IPCC, 2012). Such events lie in the far upper or lower tails of the full distribution of values for the relevant variable, for example

version risks being out of date and incomplete. The work will be published in due course and is relevant to multiple Met Office projects, including our CMIP6 contribution. We added the following text, to give a sense of where ECS values for GC3.03-PPE may lie with respect to the current IPCC

is a single value larger than the mean, how often does a sample of 10 pixels in a row have a variance larger than a certain threshold, how often do 10 pixels in a row lie above the median, etc. At each step, some measurements are censored because they show such high individual deviations or such high

suggests the front will lie across northern England and north Wales by Saturday night, but ensemble forecasts show some variation. It could sit further north or south, so staying up to date with the latest forecast will be important if you have weekend plans. READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Supercells

. between a 2% and 5% chance of occurring in any decade). What other factors contribute to future changes in tropical cyclone risks? One way in which future changes in tropical cyclone risks could affect communities, infrastructure and ecosystems in low-lying coastal areas is through changes

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

to affect northern areas. High pressure and colder air in the north High pressure will build across Greenland and Iceland, pushing weather fronts through and eventually bringing colder air to northern parts of the UK. By Wednesday, two weather fronts will lie across the country: one stalled over the north

struggle to adapt to extreme weather patterns. This can lead to long-term effects on tree health and biodiversity.  Wetter than average As meteorological summer ends this weekend (with astronomical summer continuing until the autumn equinox on 22 September), attention turns to what lies ahead

to the Environment Agency, high river levels have already caused flooding in low-lying areas bordering the shores of Derwent Water and the frontage of the Keswick Camping and Caravan Club Site. Further showers are forecast for the evening and overnight, and authorities will continue to monitor