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Frequency June–November 2011 2009 2006 2007 2008 2010 2005 PDF: Probability that the number of tropical storms will lie within given ranges CDF: Probability that the number of tropical storms will exceed a given number © Crown copyright 2011 Tropical Storm Outlook 04 05 Climate and forecast

Ocean High pressure Low pressure Antarctica Figure 1. Air mass source regions. The processes that warm or cool the air mass take place only slowly, for example it may take a week or more for an air mass to warm up by 10 °C right through the troposphere. For this to take place, an air mass must lie

temperature at 0.1 m, 0.3 m and 1.0 m below the ground level • Relative humidity at 1.25 m above the ground • Amount of rainfall • Depth of lying snow • Mean wind speed, mean wind direction and maximum gust at 10 m above the ground • Atmospheric pressure at the station level and reduced to mean sea

diagrammatically in Fig.1. Points C and E represent two different sets of environmental conditions with temperatures TC and TE, respectively. The diagonal lines at these points represent mixing lines between the environment conditions and those in the engine exhaust plume. The latter point lies far to the top

in the tails, so we see unimodal (single-peaked) distributions. In these, the relative probabilities for specific outcomes are typically much higher near the 50% cumulative probability level (median) of the distribution, than for outcomes lying either below the 10% cumulative probability level

associated with a 2°C world. This has implications at regional levels and will lead to more frequent flooding from storm surges6, other impacts such as coastal erosion, and displacement of populations from low-lying regions. Two thirds of emissions used While temperatures are on track to reach

events 69 7 Change to "…whilst for lying snow it is 0.78 for the CPM…" Typo/Format BH Closed Done 25 4.1 Overview 72 4 Change to "…projected changes for the UK under the high emission scenario, RCP8.5 emissions, comparing results…" Unclear phrasing BH Closed Done ID Section Page (as per page

Characteristic (ROC) Curve. The further the plotted curve lies above the diagonal line the higher the level of skill. Figure 2 below shows the results of the turbulence SIGWX verification. The new SIGWX forecast is indicated by the blue line, orange is the manual SIGWX currently produced by WAFC

of the distribution than in the tails, so we see unimodal (single-peaked) distributions. In these, the relative probabilities for specific outcomes are typically much higher near the 50% cumulative probability level (median) of the distribution, than for outcomes lying either below the 10% cumulative

and cyclones pose severe risks to low-lying and densely populated Bangladesh, whereas heavy rainfall-driven landslides and glacial outbursts threaten mountainous Nepal. Pakistan has experienced severe water scarcity due to variable rainfall and more frequent droughts and suffered massive floods in recent