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struggle to adapt to extreme weather patterns. This can lead to long-term effects on tree health and biodiversity.  Wetter than average As meteorological summer ends this weekend (with astronomical summer continuing until the autumn equinox on 22 September), attention turns to what lies ahead

is a single value larger than the mean, how often does a sample of 10 pixels in a row have a variance larger than a certain threshold, how often do 10 pixels in a row lie above the median, etc. At each step, some measurements are censored because they show such high individual deviations or such high

southwards, and there is some uncertainty about the exact position of the weather front. It could lie a bit further north or south, but the heaviest rain is expected to build up over the hills of Cumbria and North Wales. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland may see drier conditions by the afternoon

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

northern areas. High pressure and colder air in the north High pressure will build across Greenland and Iceland, pushing weather fronts through and eventually bringing colder air to northern parts of the UK. By Wednesday, two weather fronts will lie across the country: one stalled over the north

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

locations experiencing “ice days” where temperatures remain below zero. Night-time temperatures will be even more severe. Where snow lies, values could plunge to -10°C or -15°C, while towns and cities may see lows around -5°C. Frost will be widespread and persistent, with some areas remaining frozen

to the IPCC likely range projections for the period up to 2100. There may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside this range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. • We also provide values for the 70th percentile (in the shapefile datasets), which

range on 4 out of 7 occasions. Each time, the observed number of tropical storms was higher than predicted by the multi-model. It should first be highlighted that the observed number of tropical storms in a given year is, by definition, expected to lie within the 70% prediction interval approximately

to reach the Midlands and parts of the south-east by evening. Most areas were cloudy and wet on the 26th, with mist and fog persisting all day in some spots; rain across the east, heavy at times, fell as snow over higher ground, Copley (Durham) reporting 9 cm of lying snow, with showers to follow