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, and there is some uncertainty about the exact position of the weather front. It could lie a bit further north or south, but the heaviest rain is expected to build up over the hills of Cumbria and North Wales. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland may see drier conditions by the afternoon as the rain

is a single value larger than the mean, how often does a sample of 10 pixels in a row have a variance larger than a certain threshold, how often do 10 pixels in a row lie above the median, etc. At each step, some measurements are censored because they show such high individual deviations or such high

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

and west and may be heavy at times, with hail and isolated thunder. In the colder air, some showers will turn wintry, with sleet or snow over higher ground, particularly across Scotland, but also over hills in northern England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Any lying snow is expected to be confined

will lie across northern England and north Wales by Saturday night, but ensemble forecasts show some variation. It could sit further north or south, so staying up to date with the latest forecast will be important if you have weekend plans. READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Supercells, jet streams

 winter position. At times, it can sit close to or directly over the UK.  When this happens, the UK lies in a favoured zone for Atlantic low-pressure systems and weather fronts. These systems can bring bands of rain, blustery conditions and showers. While these lows may not be particularly deep

settled week Author: Met Office 17 March 2026 A largely settled week lies ahead for the UK, with high pressure becoming the dominant feature. While many areas will enjoy warm spring sunshine at times, there will still be one or two interruptions as weak weather fronts drift around the edges

to questions like this, as the probability and intensity of extreme weather changes in a warmer world. This will help countries, communities and businesses become more resilient to a changing climate. Earlier this month we looked at what is meant by Loss and Damage. A dwelling in Kerala lies almost

FLOOD RISK MATRIX GUIDANCE ON IMPACTS Minimal disruption Minor disruption Significant disruption Severe disruption Typical impacts Generally no impact, however there may be: • Isolated and minor flooding of low-lying land and roads. • Isolated instances of spray/wave overtopping in coastal roads

. between a 2% and 5% chance of occurring in any decade). What other factors contribute to future changes in tropical cyclone risks? One way in which future changes in tropical cyclone risks could affect communities, infrastructure and ecosystems in low-lying coastal areas is through changes