This week brings a striking contrast in temperatures across the UK, with exceptionally mild conditions in the south and a turn to colder weather in the north.
The week begins with mild conditions across all parts of the UK. Low pressure is once again approaching from the southwest, ushering in a moist and mild air flow. This pattern brings weather fronts in from the Atlantic, resulting in wet weather from the outset, especially across western areas.
Bands of rain will push through Northern England into southern and central Scotland and Northern Ireland by the afternoon. Meanwhile, much of England and Wales will experience a drier spell before another round of wet weather moves back into Wales and the southwest.
Regional breakdown: Rain and cloud
East Anglia and the southeast will remain mostly dry, although skies are expected to be largely cloudy. In contrast, the far north of Scotland will see clearer spells and slightly fresher conditions, with temperatures around 10°C and the possibility of one or two showers. This region will also enjoy the brightest skies of the week.
Heavy rain and wind in the west
Rainfall in the west is set to accumulate, with the wettest weather expected over the hills of South Wales, southwest England, Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland. Some areas could see up to 60 mm of rain, and perhaps as much as 80 mm over the hills of South Wales and Southwest England, which may lead to localised issues.
Looking at the bigger picture, we can see the next low pressure system heading towards the UK 🌧️
— Met Office (@metoffice) November 10, 2025
This will bring heavy rain for some of us, with weather warnings out for western areas https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/3VtXfVXlOh
Rain warnings are in force for these regions. The wet weather will be accompanied by strong winds, with gusts of 50 mph or more possible along some exposed southwestern coasts. Despite the wind, temperatures in the south will remain mild, reaching around 15°C.
Mild air persists in the south
Throughout much of the week, the mild air will persist in southern regions. Night-time temperatures will not drop significantly, often staying in the teens, thanks to the continued south-westerly air flow. However, as the week progresses, changes in wind direction will begin to affect northern areas.
High pressure and colder air in the north
High pressure will build across Greenland and Iceland, pushing weather fronts through and eventually bringing colder air to northern parts of the UK. By Wednesday, two weather fronts will lie across the country: one stalled over the north of Scotland and another lingering across the southeast, which will push further rain into southern areas by the end of the day.
Between these fronts, Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, Northern England, and North Wales will enjoy some decent sunny spells, while wet weather continues on either side.
Temperature contrasts and uncertainty
A significant temperature contrast will develop as southerly winds bring exceptionally mild air to the south, both by day and night, while the north experiences a marked drop in temperatures through Thursday and into the weekend. This contrast will create a weather front in the middle of the country, bringing heavy rain. There is some uncertainty, especially during Thursday and Friday, about the exact placement of this boundary and the heaviest rainfall.
READ MORE: Mild start to November sees temperature records broken
The areas most likely to be affected include Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, central Northern England, the Midlands, and Wales. The south will remain drier and very mild, with temperatures reaching 16–17°C, while the north turns colder.
Wintry showers and bright skies in the north
Northern Scotland will see colder conditions, with some showers falling as sleet and snow over the mountain tops and hail at lower levels. The wind will make it feel even colder, although skies will be brighter compared to the south. The outbreaks of rain across the middle of the country will shift position later in the week, but the boundary between cold air in the north and mild air in the south will remain uncertain.
Model insights: Southampton and Inverness
To illustrate the temperature trends, let’s look at two locations: Southampton and Inverness. In Southampton, model simulations show a very mild week, with temperatures barely dipping below 14°C from Tuesday afternoon through to Friday. Most models indicate a drop into the weekend, but about a third keep conditions mild, highlighting the uncertainty.
Inverness, on the other hand, starts off relatively mild but sees a much more confident drop in temperatures during Thursday, with a pronounced contrast between north and south for Thursday and Friday. There is greater confidence that it will stay cold in Inverness through the weekend and into next week.
READ MORE: How the Met Office uses data assimilation to produce its forecasts
Weekend outlook: Brighter, colder, and some uncertainty
By Friday, the temperature contrast will be at its peak. In the north, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England will be cold but bright, with wintry showers over the hills and plenty of sunny spells. The south will remain mild, with temperatures possibly reaching 17 or 18°C if the weather front shifts further north.
As the weekend approaches, high pressure to the north is likely to extend further south, leading to colder but brighter weather for most areas. However, there is still a question mark over the far south and southwest, which may stay cloudy, damp, and much milder depending on the placement of low and high-pressure systems.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
