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the Pennines, Cumbrian Hills, and more widely in Scotland, with up to 15cm falling over the Shetlands on the 7th. A cold easterly airstream together with lying snow allowed temperatures to fall to -10°C or below over Sutherland. The UK got a brief respite from the wet and windy weather between the 25th

outcomes follow a ‘bell curve’ (normal) distribution symmetrical around the best estimate. In practice, the distribution may be multi-modal rather than normal. For this reason, forecasts were made for the probability that the number of storms will lie in pre-defined ranges, or categories (e.g. 10

below -7°C being reported in parts of Scotland and southern England. Snow showers off the North sea brought some significant falls for parts of northeast England with up to 10cm of lying snow in County Durham. Notes The Met Office National Meteorological Library and Archive holds a near-continuous

Violent storm Exceptionally high waves (small and medium-sized ships might be for a time lost behind the waves). The sea is completely covered with long white patches of foam lying along the direction of the wind. Everywhere the edges of the wave crests are blown into froth. Visibility affected 60

of 40cm in some higher-lying Sheffield suburbs. There was also significant transport disruption with road closures and several thousand affected by power outages in Northern Ireland. A similar combination of road closures and local power outages affected parts of North Wales. After a battle between

of lying snow at Strathy East (Sutherland). The 4th and 5th were generally cloudy, though with some brightness. Rain spread from the west late on the 5th and crossed the country overnight, resulting in a mild night with a minimum of 10.2 °C at Lossiemouth (Morayshire), followed by sunshine

level would have if starting at the wet bulb temperature, it was brought at a saturated adiabatic lapse rate, to the standard pressure of 1000hPa) on pressure levels. Liquid water equivalent (LWE) depth of the snow lying on the surface (ground). Typically, water is 10 times as dense as snow so

, over the Pennines, Cumbrian Hills, and more widely in Scotland, with up to 15cm falling over the Shetlands on the 7th. A cold easterly airstream together with lying snow allowed temperatures to fall to -10°C or below over Sutherland. The UK got a brief respite from the wet and windy weather between

The differences in these curves show how the probabilities for the coming periods differ compared to past years. Where the solid curve (corresponding to this year's Outlook) lies above the dashed curve (normal likelihood), the temperature, precipitation or wind speed at that point has a greater-than

), the ROC curve and the standardized area under the curve (such that perfect forecasts give an area of 1 and a curve lying along the diagonal gives 0.5) should be provided. For Level 2 information (gridded values), the standardized area under the ROC curve should be provided. 2.2 Reliability diagrams