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. There are some mixed signals from various modelling centres regarding the evolution of ENSO later this year. However, ENSO is most likely to remain neutral through the next three months. More information on typical impacts can be found here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc

to the Climate Prediction Centre, La Niña conditions are present with a La Niña Advisory issued. All indices are currently negative and point to La Niña conditions with some atmospheric response evident, with these conditions expected to remain over the coming few months, returning to neutral early

conditions taking hold in the August to October period (60% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below

the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña event while the likelihood of ENSO remaining neutral is around 40 %. In contrast, output from the Australian Bureau

conditions across the equatorial Pacific. Both NOAA and the Bureau of Metrology in Australia (BoM) have declared that La Niña is present. According to the latest forecasts, from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, La Niña is the most likely outcome over the next few months

. The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) states that: “La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).” For the next

the period, when skies cleared overnight frost developed quite widely but was not severe. 7th to 15th The weather turned milder, while remaining unsettled. It was generally mostly dry but cloudy and windy on the 7th, with some light rain mainly in the north-west. A belt of rain crossed the country

affected the east and south-east of England on the 15th with showers in the north-east, and there was a cold north-easterly wind. Light rain affected many areas on the 16th and 17th, with a frost in the south under clearer skies overnight 16th/17th. Most places were dry, sunny and cold on the 18th

for driving a LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) van (slide 6) around the virtual map to collect volcanic ash weather observations. It then needs to be driven back, with the weather data, to the Met Office supercomputer. Try to avoid the lava! 1. Tell the students to work through the booklet

, particularly in more sheltered spots. As the day progresses, cloud will increase from the west-southwest, bringing rain, some of it heavy, to southern regions by dusk. Northern areas will remain breezy, while winds elsewhere are generally light. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be close