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the datasets. Indicators marked * correlate negatively with undernutrition (FAO, 2014). Component Indicator Data source Plausible maximum value Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Plausible minimum value Forest cover (% of total World Bank Data 95% 0% area)* Rainfed agriculture (% of World Resources 100% 0

and Table 3 show annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall anomalies for the UK and countries from 1910 to 2014 inclusive. A large contribution to the annual rainfall total came from the very wet weather during winter storms in January and February. Winter 2013/14 was exceptionally wet and stormy

places in Scotland saw more than double their average rainfall for the month. Edinburgh in particular saw very large rainfall totals, receiving 239% of its average April rainfall, which is its second wettest on record, falling only behind totals in 2000. East and West Lothian, Aberdeen, Clackmannan

radiative flux at the TOA Longwave downwelling radiative flux at the surface Longwave upwelling radiative flux at the TOA Surface total precipitation rate clt Total cloud cover % Wm-2 Wm-2 Wm-2 Wm-2 kgm-2s-1 clwvi Liquid water path kgm-2 prw Water vapor path kgm-2 hfls Surface latent heat flux Wm-2 hfss

. This has brought more unsettled conditions, particularly to the northern and western parts of the country. By Thursday, a more significant system is forecast to bring heavy rain to northern areas, especially western Scotland and Cumbria, where rainfall totals could exceed 30-40mm. In contrast

of observations in terms of the 24 hour total energy norm. Through the adjoint procedure, this can provide a value of sensitivity for each individual observation. Monitoring, bias correction and quality control Conventional observations (surface, radiosonde, aircraft) are continuously monitored and their use

reaching most areas of the UK by Sunday. The highest rainfall totals through the weekend are most likely in the west and southwest, and generally lower further east.” Detail to be determined next week An unsettled start to next week is most likely, with low pressure continuing to influence the outlook

in Hampshire, that flew for a combined total of 120 hours. The WesCon campaign forms part of the ParaChute Programme, a joint partnership between the Met Office and NERC (the Natural Environment Research Council). ParaChute aims to increase our understanding of how turbulent processes produce

-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of the Total Environment, Volume 756, 143172 Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Simona Pedde, James M. Bullock, Ornella Dellaccio, Jennifer Dicks, George Linney, Magnus Merkle, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Jon Stenning, Paula A. Harrison, 2022. Improving regional applicability

-Based Forecasting FLOODFORECASTINGCENTRE Seasonal forecasting reliability Skill for “Well above normal” rainfall Skill for “Well below normal” rainfall Forecast skill of June-issued probabilistic forecasts for July-September rainfall totals above the 80 th percentile (left) and below the 20 th