It’s felt like all we’ve been talking about is rain over the past few months, but how much rain have we seen since the start of autumn, and how much more is there to come this week?
In this week’s Deep Dive, we take a closer look at the UK’s rainfall patterns, the impacts of recent storms, and what the forecast holds as we approach the festive period.
Rainfall since autumn: From deficit to deluge
The UK is currently running at a deficit for rainfall, following an exceptionally dry spring and summer. However, since September, the weather has shifted dramatically, with fairly continuous rainfall for some parts and several notable events, including storm Claudia and then storm Bram just last week.
Throughout 2025, the UK as a whole has remained below average for rainfall, reaching its driest point at the end of summer. Since then, the gap between actual rainfall and the average has narrowed, but a deficit persists for the UK overall. Regionally, the picture is more complex. Western areas are starting to become wetter than average, while eastern areas remain much drier.
Regional extremes and flooding risks
Some regions have seen exceptional rainfall totals. For example, parts of northwest England recorded over 360 millimetres of rain in just two days in Cumbria, not far off the record set during Storm Desmond in 2009. South Wales has also faced repeated flooding issues, with a number of amber warnings issued over the past couple of months. In fact, some areas have already reached or exceeded their annual rainfall totals for December.
READ MORE: Week ahead forecast: Wet weather continues, but signs of change for Christmas
Looking more closely at south Wales and southwest England, the rainfall trend mirrors the national picture: a dry start to the year, followed by a surge in rainfall since September. Over the past three and a half months, these regions have seen 50% of their annual rainfall, a figure that usually takes the whole autumn and winter to accumulate. This rapid increase has led to significant impacts, including flooding and saturated ground.
Hydrological outlook: Contrasts across the UK
The latest UK hydrological outlook highlights stark differences in water supply across the country. Western areas now have river flows and groundwater levels at or above normal for December and into winter, while eastern England and much of northern Scotland remain below average. These disparities explain why some regions still face water restrictions, even as others contend with flooding.
The jet stream and persistent wet weather
A key driver of the recent wet weather has been the jet stream, which remains highly active as it moves across the Atlantic. This has created a breeding ground for low pressure systems, leading to the succession of weather fronts and persistent rainfall. The jet stream’s influence is evident in the repeated cycles of wet and windy conditions affecting the UK.
This week’s forecast: More rain, travel disruption, and warnings
As people begin to travel for Christmas, further disruption is likely through the rest of this week. Warnings are in force for Wednesday and Thursday, with a broad area of low pressure sweeping across the UK. Western and southern areas, including southwest Scotland, northwest England, north Wales, south Wales, Devon, and Cornwall, are expected to see the most intense rainfall, with totals around 40 to 60 millimetres.
READ MORE: Storm Bram by numbers: A look into December’s first storm
On Thursday, a further weather system will add to the rainfall, with some areas accumulating in excess of 100 millimetres by the end of the day. Friday offers a brief respite, with drier conditions across much of the country, but Saturday brings another narrow band of intense rain. With many people on the roads, dangerous driving conditions and delays to trains are expected.
A glimmer of hope: High pressure and a drier Christmas
Despite the ongoing rain, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Signs point to a shift in the weather pattern, with low pressure giving way to high pressure as we move into Christmas week. This change is expected to bring drier and more settled conditions for the festive period.
High pressure will put a cap on rainfall and keep the jet stream at bay, leading to lighter winds, colder nights, and an increased risk of frost and fog. The exact position of the high-pressure system will influence the details of the forecast, but the overall trend is towards less rainfall and more settled weather.
Christmas scenarios: What can we expect?
Looking ahead to Christmas Day, there are three main scenarios for the UK’s weather:
- High pressure centred over the UK and Irish Sea: This would bring northerly winds and widespread dry, settled conditions, with little precipitation.
- High pressure over Denmark and Scandinavia: Easterly winds would dominate, with western areas closer to low pressure and potentially some showery weather.
- High pressure over northern France: This scenario would bring southwesterly winds and slightly milder conditions.
All scenarios point to high pressure dominating, with temperatures slightly colder than average but nothing exceptionally cold. The chance of a widespread white Christmas is very low, even if winds turn easterly or northerly. The general expectation is for a downward trend in temperatures, with most areas staying in the low single figures through to Christmas.
READ MORE: November 2025 weather stats: A regional breakdown
Ensemble forecasts and confidence
The ECMWF ensemble output, which runs multiple model simulations, shows high confidence in the shift to high pressure. Most lines on the pressure charts are trending upwards, especially for northern and eastern areas, indicating a strong likelihood of settled weather dominating into Christmas week.
What does this mean for the festive period?
High pressure means less rainfall, lighter winds, and the potential for colder nights, frost, and fog. While temperatures are expected to trend downwards, there is no sign of a sudden cold blast or exceptionally cold air. The mild conditions seen recently are likely to give way to cooler, more settled weather, providing a welcome break from the relentless rain.
As we approach Christmas, the UK faces continued risk of flooding and travel disruption due to ongoing rain. Warnings remain in force, so it’s important to stay informed via the Met Office website and app.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
