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it forced at its boundaries with global operational analysis to reproduce the weather of a given month as closely as possible. It is run twice: once with observed satellite Sea Surface Temperatures (ATMostia) and once with 1982-2012 mean climatological SSTs (ATMclim). The difference between the two

exceeding the average temperature in 2010 is once in 312 years. In the current climate – accounting for climate change - the probabilities increase to once in every 3.1 years. And by the end of the century, the study - incorporating climate change projections - shows this will increase to once every

of the MENA region, temperatures were hot in June and August, while they were cool in July. While in the Levant region of the MENA, temperatures were near-normal in June and July and hot in August. The Caribbean was hotter than normal.Southern Europe was hotter than normal in June and August, but near-normal

mixed across the Middle East from May to July, but generally ranged from near-normal to hot. Similarly, most parts of north Africa and the Caribbean were normal to hot. The British Overseas Territories in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean were hot in June and July, and Territories in the Pacific

- Temperature Current Status: The Caribbean Region has been hot over the past three months while more mixed conditions were observed over Colombia and Venezuela. Warm or hot conditions have prevailed over MENA for much of the past three months although temperatures in Syria and Iraq were normal

of the Caribbean region has been hot over the last three month. Conditions more mixed for Colombia and Venezuela with some areas experiencing below normal temperatures. Across MENA many areas were warm or hot during January with above normal temperatures more limited to northwest Africa in November

of temperature, with the 0th percentile being the coolest and the 100th percentile being the warmest in the 1981-2010 climatology. Orange and red shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark blue indicate values below

: The percentiles shown in the map indicate a ranking of temperature, with the 0th percentile being the coolest and the 100th percentile being the warmest in the 1981-2010 climatology. Orange and red shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded

– Temperature Global Outlook – Rainfall Climate Outlook Africa: August to May Africa Current Status and Outlook - Temperature Current Status: Over the last three months, temperatures were hotter than normal in West Africa. The exception being Liberia, Ghana and Nigeria which were colder than normal

-2010 climatology. Orange and red shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark blue indicate values below the 20th (Cool) and 10th (Cold) percentile, with respect to the 1981-2010 climatology. The data used in this map are from