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-Based Forecasting FLOODFORECASTINGCENTRE Seasonal forecasting reliability Skill for “Well above normal” rainfall Skill for “Well below normal” rainfall Forecast skill of June-issued probabilistic forecasts for July-September rainfall totals above the 80 th percentile (left) and below the 20 th

of observations in terms of the 24 hour total energy norm. Through the adjoint procedure, this can provide a value of sensitivity for each individual observation. Monitoring, bias correction and quality control Conventional observations (surface, radiosonde, aircraft) are continuously monitored and their use

& Wales sunshine value England & Wales sunshine value Year (hours per day) (total in hours) 20012.60 80.6 19622.10 65.1 20002.06 63.9 19461.90 58.9 19761.85 57.3 19671.82 56.4 The table below shows the initial December values (based on data available on 2 January 2002), the highest previous values/year

start with the chance of some icy patches and fog in the southeast of England, wind and rain will move across the UK through Friday. It’ll be an unpleasant evening rush hour so do leave extra time if you’re out on the roads. “The highest rainfall totals from Friday into Saturday will be over high

High resolution forecast map layers - Precipitation rate ✔ ✔ Forecast map layers - Wind (arrows and fletches), Wind and Temperature, Temperature for range of flight levels ✔ ✔ UK High resolution forecast map layers - Precipitation type, Visibility, Total cloud, Cloud layers, Fog   ✔ Aerodrome Warnings email alerts ✔ ✔

by the PWSCG with support from the Met Office. Funding The PWS is mainly funded by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) on behalf of Government. In addition, the Civil Aviation Authority also pays towards the service to underpin its services for UK and global aviation. Some research and development projects receive additional funding from other sources. The current total PWS funding is approximately £169.3 million per year.

for longer. Temperatures are also on the rise as part of this change, possibly peaking at 16°C on Friday in the southeast, which is above average for the time of year. UK weekend weather Saturday will be a drier day for many, with rainfall totals much reduced, though those in the southeast will see

reaching most areas of the UK by Sunday. The highest rainfall totals through the weekend are most likely in the west and southwest, and generally lower further east.” Detail to be determined next week An unsettled start to next week is most likely, with low pressure continuing to influence the outlook

models such as ECMWF and GFS show a weaker system or push it away more quickly. This has implications for rainfall, with the Met Office model previously indicating the potential for intense rainfall totals—up to 80 mm in some southwestern areas. However, more recent runs suggest lower totals, though

. This has brought more unsettled conditions, particularly to the northern and western parts of the country. By Thursday, a more significant system is forecast to bring heavy rain to northern areas, especially western Scotland and Cumbria, where rainfall totals could exceed 30-40mm. In contrast, southern