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). This gives a 20-50 year temporary resilience. (Fig 4) (13) The temporary resilience period would be lower if freshwater was added at a higher rate. The AMOC strength when adding freshwater of 0.3 Sv (1 Sv=10 6 m 3 /s) to the North Atlantic (grey), and when freshwater ceases to be added after 20

3 /s) to the North Atlantic (grey), and when freshwater ceases to be added after 20 (green) or 50 (red) years, showing two different final states. b) Temporary resilience as a function of the amount of additional freshwater. 13 How likely is such a threshold to be crossed? It is likely, based

Consortium in Kenya’. Working draft, Exeter: Met Office. 2 Carter, S., Steynor, A., Vincent, K., Visman, E., and Waagsaether, K. (2019) ‘Co-production of African weather and climate services’. Manual, Cape Town: Future Climate for Africa and Weather and Climate Information Services for Africa (https