Met Office weather: What’s in store for the next 10 days?

After an exceptionally dry season, the Met Office’s latest 10-day trend suggests that change is on the horizon — and it’s bringing a mix of sunshine, showers, and cooler temperatures.

As we head into the bank holiday weekend, the forecast remains mixed. The Met Office anticipates a blend of sunny spells and showers on Monday, with breezy conditions persisting due to tightly packed isobars. Another low-pressure system may bring longer spells of rain from the west, although confidence in its exact path remains low.

Despite the unsettled conditions, temperatures will remain relatively mild. Central and southern parts of the UK could see highs of 20–21°C, especially in sheltered spots. However, the overall feel will be cooler and breezier than the previous week.

Zonal flow and continued variability

The broader trend over the next couple of weeks points to a continued westerly (zonal) flow. This pattern typically brings alternating spells of wet and dry weather, as frontal systems move in from the Atlantic. While much of England, Wales, and Scotland will remain dry on Friday, Northern Ireland and the far west of Scotland will begin to see increased cloud and rain.

Temperatures will stay warm in the south and central regions, but eastern coastal areas may feel cooler due to onshore breezes. As the weekend progresses, another low-pressure system is expected to move in from the northwest, bringing further rain and wind, particularly to western and northern areas.

Looking ahead: Signs of high pressure returning

Beyond the immediate 10-day window, the Met Office’s pressure trend analysis reveals a mixed picture. A blend of blue (low pressure) and red (high pressure) shades on the forecast charts suggests a changeable pattern. While low-pressure systems will continue to bring rain at times, there are signs that high pressure may begin to build again toward early to mid-June.

Probability plots show a gradual decrease in low-pressure dominance and an increase in high-pressure signals — particularly in southern parts of the UK. This could lead to more settled, drier, and brighter conditions as we move into the summer months. However, forecasters caution that confidence remains low, and the timing of this transition is still uncertain.

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Rainfall totals and regional impacts

From Friday to Sunday, the northwest of the UK is expected to bear the brunt of the rainfall. Met Office models, supported by both European and American forecasts, suggest totals of 50–60mm in some areas. This will be a welcome change for regions that have experienced a prolonged dry spell, although it may dampen plans for the bank holiday weekend.

Despite the rain, it won’t be a complete washout. Central and southern parts of the UK will still see dry spells, and temperatures will remain in the high teens to low twenties — pleasant enough for outdoor activities when the sun breaks through.

A mixed bag to end spring

The UK’s weather over the next 10 days will be a classic case of spring variability. While the dry spell is coming to an end, the transition to wetter conditions will be gradual and regionally varied. The northwest will see the most rain, while the south and east may enjoy more sunshine and warmth.

Met Office presenter and meteorologist, Honor Criswick, said: "This 10-day trend brings us to the end of May, also to the end of meteorological spring, and after a very dry season, a change is on its way. I thought we'd take a look at the bigger picture and start off by taking a look at areas across the US.

"So we've seen some very heavy showers and thunderstorms, all being fuelled by areas of low pressure. And what we'll see as these areas of low pressure just to the east of the US, well, they'll be swept up by our jet stream, a little bit weaker this time of year, but still enough fuel to power some areas of low pressure as they push their way eastwards across the Atlantic.

"And we'll start to see this on Saturday, an area of low pressure just to the east of Iceland dragging in some frontal systems, so quite a wet day on offer as we head into Saturday.

"Then it's all eyes on this area of low pressure being swept up once again by the jet stream, moving into what we call the left jet exit of that jet stream, and it sits to the north of the country, once again dragging in some unsettled weather.

"It’s going to bring in some breezy weather, particularly across the northwest, also some wet weather. It's likely Monday for the bank holiday, it'll be a mix of sunny spells and showers.

"There’s still that chance, even over the next couple of weeks, that we'll see a westerly flow of air dragging in frontal systems at times. And we'll begin to see this on Friday. Now once again, many areas are going to be largely dry, much of England, Wales, Scotland. Still plenty of sunshine, still the risk of the odd shower across the very far northeast of Scotland.

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"But it's really Northern Ireland and the far west of Scotland, where we'll begin to see that change, more cloud pushing in, outbreaks of rain eventually later turning a little bit heavier.

"Then after this, once again, low pressure taking hold. An area of low pressure just to the east of Iceland, once again dragging in some frontal systems moving their way eastwards through on Wednesday. So, a very damp start for most, if not quite cloudy across Saturday morning.

"Most areas are going to see some rain at some point, and it may even be heavy at times, particularly across the west. And it's going to be a much breezier day too, so a very different feel to the day for the beginning of next weekend. But temperatures still aren't super low, highs are reaching around 20 to 21°C across central and southern parts, but it's certainly going to feel a lot differently compared to the last week or so. Then after that, still more rain to come."

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