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and the values are close to the issued (deterministic) forecast, then we have higher confidence in the outcome. High Confidence Lower Confidence If the top of a box (75%) quartile, lies below an operational limit then we can be reasonably confident of not exceeding the limit (providing the issued

, but perhaps to low levels too. Where the boundary between mild and cold weather lies over the weekend is subject to some uncertainty at the moment. Keep up to date with the latest forecast on our website, by following us on Twitter and Facebook. Keep track of current weather warnings on the weather warning page.

frost, the 12th saw freezing fog over many areas, persisting all day in a few places, a cold and mainly cloudy day with showers around some coasts, temperatures at Wallington (Northumberland) struggling to -5.9 °C, and 9 cm of snow lying at Cambridge Botanic Garden and Buntingford (Hertfordshire

as graupel (soft small ice pellets that form in convective clouds). In turn, this affects some other variables (e.g. the amount of lying snow, which leads to colder winter temperatures, and hourly precipitation extremes) and leads to differences that are significant 1 . This error has now been fixed

Local projections, alongside other UKCP tools, for many applications. This document provides the guidance to help users understand how to best continue in their use of the model results. Fixing the graupel code error impacts winter temperature in some regions, due to more lying snow in the modified

. Next week starts with milder conditions leading to a continued thaw of lying snow and further bands of potentially heavy rain arriving from the west at times. Keep up to date with the latest forecast and warnings for your area on our website  or via the Met Office mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

. “A frontal system is expected to move in from the west and displace the high pressure lying across the UK. This will spread rain across all areas during the latter part of Easter Sunday and through Easter Monday, although there is some uncertainty regarding its exact timing. Once the rain clears blustery

. Sunday night will be a very cold night, especially in areas with lying snow where temperatures could get as low as -12°C. Thank you to everyone who has sent in #snow pictures today, here's a selection from central parts where some have seen more than a foot of snow #loveukweather pic.twitter.com

Download the full food security and climate change assessment for Sudan here. Sudan lies at the northern most extent of the band of tropical rains known as the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. This means it has a strong gradient of rainfall, ranging from extremely dry conditions in the north

tonight and the hills and mountains of Scotland and Northern Ireland could see a few cms of lying snow above 200-300 metres. Widespread icy patches will develop on untreated surfaces first thing Monday morning and could cause a few travel problems.” Whilst the blustery, cold conditions are a contrast