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we expect to see in the long-term future as a result of climate change. We will focus on low-pressure cyclones, most prevalent in the UK during autumn and winter, touching only briefly on the convective storms which tend to occur during summer. Recent trends When considering recent trends in storm

rolling mean 96.0% 96.0% 95.9% 95.9% TAF timeliness Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs. Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on the expected weather conditions at an airport upon arrival. Around 280 TAFs per day

) 93.0% 94.2% 94.8% 95.3% 12-month rolling mean 95.8% 95.6% 95.4% 95.3% TAF timeliness Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs. Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on the expected weather conditions at an airport

% 94.2% 12-month rolling mean 95.9% 95.9% 95.8% 95.6% TAF timeliness Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs. Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on the expected weather conditions at an airport upon arrival

information and indices (e.g. heatwaves, drought risks) 4. Conclusions and headline impacts (may also be communicated as an infographic) a) Summary of projected changes in key hazards b) Can be visualized by sector, hazard, or by region c) Brief discussion of roles of mitigation and adaptation to address

% 93.0% 12-month rolling mean 95.9% 95.9% 95.9% 95.8% TAF timeliness Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs. Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on the expected weather conditions at an airport upon arrival

of the forecast ensemble. However this is not the only source of uncertainty, and here we briefly discuss some other aspects of the performance of the forecasting system. Peterson et al (submitted) provides a fuller discussion. The correlation between the hindcasts and observations is 0.63, which

) Estimate of Forecast Skill The quoted uncertainty associated with our projection is based solely on the spread of the members of the forecast ensemble. However this is not the only source of uncertainty, and here we briefly discuss some other aspects of the performance of the forecasting system

mean 96.0% 95.9% 95.9% 95.9% TAF timeliness Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs. Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on the expected weather conditions at an airport upon arrival. Around 280 TAFs per day

% 93.0% 94.8% 12-month rolling mean 95.9% 95.9% 95.8% 95.4% TAF timeliness Objective: To ensure airlines and pilots have timely access to TAFs. Reliable provision of TAFs are important to airlines and pilots, to ensure they are fully briefed on the expected weather conditions at an airport upon arrival