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the tropics. Although weakening, El Niño will continue to impact global weather patterns over the next few months. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – The recent positive Indian Ocean Dipole has now come to an end, with conditions expected to remain near-neutral for the next few months. Much More Likely Below Normal

. For guidance on which set of projections to use, please consult UKCP18 Guidance: How to use the land projections? 3 Reference to the 2008-2017 decade comes from the State of the UK Climate 2017 report. © Crown copyright 2019, Met Office Page 5 3.1 Future Temperature Change 3.1.1 By the end of the 21

, locally heavy and persistent showers on the 20th. More was to come for southern and eastern England and eastern Scotland on the 23rd and 24th in the shape of Storm Benjamin, named by the French Met Service, with strong winds and locally heavy and persistent rain. As Benjamin moved east into the North

of April as the weather became largely settled, cold and very dry, reports of wildfires started to come in. Wildfires were reported in the Mourne Mountains in Northern Ireland, in Whinlatter Forest, Cumbria, at Marsden Moor, West Yorkshire, and across Wales. South Wales Fire and Rescue reportedly

to 2009-2018, illustrating the importance of considering long-period natural variations. 3 Reference to the 2008-2017 decade comes from the State of the UK Climate 2017 report. www.metoffice.gov.uk Pg 6 of 12 Source: Met Office © Crown Copyright 2021 2.7 Total rainfall from extremely wet days (days

into this. Colleagues in the British Embassy Manila were also extremely grateful for your assessments, it really helped the crisis planning ning and assumptions on the ground. Fortunately we have now been able to come out of crisis mode as the worst of the weather has past and, thanks not just

) further discuss projected changes in these four variables. How confident are we in the results? Confidence in climate projections comes from: comparing the results from different climate models; comparing the climate model to observations; and understanding processes and their representation within

this period. 3-Month Outlook April to June - Rainfall Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Asia: December to September Overview 4 Global Outlook - Temperature Outlook: The recent La Niña event has come to an end with ENSO returning

record. These show periods in earlier parts of the historical record with similar levels of UK summer rainfall to 2009-2018, illustrating the importance of considering long-period natural variations. 3 Reference to the 2008-2017 decade comes from the State of the UK Climate 2017 report

of an upscaling strategy. The material does not cover the practical implementation of the strategy – and rather than replacing a detailed business plan or work plan, following the materials can inform the creation of such plans. The concepts, methods, and material in this toolkit come from – or build on – a wide