Met Office weather: What's in store for the next 10-days?

Over recent days, we’ve seen a noticeable shift in the weather pattern, with the jet stream slipping further south and currently straddling the UK.

Over recent days, we’ve seen a noticeable shift in the weather pattern, with the jet stream slipping further south and currently straddling the UK.

Out in the Atlantic, the jet is diving even further south, generating a trough, essentially a dip in the jet stream, which is helping to spin up an area of low pressure. This low, and others that may follow, will play a dominant role in shaping our weather through the weekend.

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Warmth and humidity building from the south

As the jet stream continues to push southwards, it’s drawing up warm and humid air from the near continent. Winds at low levels are transporting this air from Spain and France into the UK, particularly on Friday and Saturday. As a result, temperatures are expected to rise once again, with the southeast potentially reaching 30°C on Friday under some sunshine.

However, unlike previous warm spells, this one is likely to be accompanied by more cloud and an increasing risk of heavy rain. An old weather front lingering across parts of England and Wales will bring cloudier skies and mark the boundary between the warmer air in the south and fresher conditions further north and west.

Thunderstorms and downpours likely

Friday and Saturday will see the potential for heavy downpours and thunderstorms, particularly across Northern Ireland and parts of the south and southeast. There are two yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms currently in place. One for parts of Northern Ireland from 11am until 8pm Thursday and another for much of England from 9pm Friday until 6pm Saturday. 

Overnight temperatures in the London area may remain above 20°C, while further north it will be cooler and more comfortable. As we move into Saturday, further plumes of heavy, thundery showers are expected to drift northwards. These showers will be hit and miss, and while some areas may see significant rainfall, others could remain largely dry with some sunshine.

Uncertainty in the detail

Forecast confidence decreases when it comes to the finer details. Ensemble forecasts—where the same model is run multiple times with slight variations—show a wide range of possible rainfall outcomes for Saturday. Some model members show little rain over the Midlands and eastern England, while others suggest widespread downpours affecting Northern Ireland, Wales, and southern Scotland.

The exact position of the low pressure system and how it interacts with the jet stream will be key. The Met Office model currently keeps the low further south and west, while the European model (ECMWF) places it closer to the UK, bringing rain further north. The American model presents a different scenario altogether, with low pressure centred over Scotland. The most likely outcome lies somewhere between the Met Office and European solutions.

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Into next week: low pressure lingers

Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, most models agree that the initial low may spawn additional lows, which will linger near the UK and drift slowly eastwards. This means the warm and humid conditions will continue into the start of the new week, with further heavy and thundery showers likely in places.

Midweek outlook: northwesterly airflow

By midweek, the most likely pressure pattern features low pressure to the northeast and high pressure trying to build from the southwest. This setup brings a northwesterly airflow across the UK, leading to a mix of sunshine and showers. The north and east are likely to see the most showers, while the south and southwest should stay largely dry.

Although this pattern suggests cooler-than-average conditions, sea surface temperatures around the UK are currently above average. Combined with the strength of the July sun, it will still feel warm when the sun is out. Overall, temperatures are expected to be close to average for the time of year.

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