In this week’s Deep Dive, we’re taking a look at the UK’s weather outlook for the coming days, reflecting on the recent heatwave, and exploring the findings of the newly published State of the UK Climate Report 2024.
This week, much of the UK is experiencing significantly wetter conditions than in recent weeks. Rain has moved in from the west, affecting Northern Ireland overnight and spreading into Wales, northwest England, and southwest Scotland. Some areas, including parts of Dumfries and Galloway and the Borders, have already recorded 50 to 60 millimetres of rainfall.
Behind the persistent rain, intense thundery downpours are developing, particularly across Northern Ireland. Strong winds are accompanying the rain, and temperatures have dropped noticeably compared to the weekend, bringing a fresher feel across the country.
Rain is on the way—but will the heat make a comeback?
— Met Office (@metoffice) July 14, 2025
Find out in the week-ahead forecast below 👇 pic.twitter.com/lPzfGjkJYl
Short-term forecast
Looking ahead, the system responsible for today’s unsettled weather is expected to clear eastwards overnight. A ridge of high pressure will build, bringing a largely dry day for most areas tomorrow. Some showers may persist in parts of Scotland and eastern England, but the southwest is likely to see the wettest conditions as a front moves in. The exact position of this front remains uncertain, but it is expected to affect Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Dorset, and possibly southern Wales.
Temperatures will begin to rise again, with highs potentially reaching the mid to high 20s. Sunshine will be more prevalent, especially away from the southwest.
Later in the week, another system will push in from the west, bringing heavy rain and the risk of thundery downpours, particularly in Northern Ireland. Southeastern areas are likely to remain dry. Recent Met Office model runs suggest that the rain will be more confined to the far west and northwest, rather than spreading across the entire country as previously forecast.
Weekend outlook
As we move into the weekend, low pressure is expected to settle near the south or southwest of the UK. This will bring further unsettled conditions, with the potential for heavy, thundery rain moving northwards. Saturday and Sunday are both likely to be wet, although there will be some drier spells interspersed.
Despite the rain, temperatures will remain warm, with highs potentially reaching the low 30s in some areas. Humidity will also be high, contributing to the risk of intense rainfall and thunderstorms.
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Longer-term trends
Looking further ahead, probabilistic pressure trends suggest a transition period at the end of the week, followed by a return to unsettled conditions. The zonal trend indicates a predominance of westerly flows, meaning weather systems will continue to move through quickly. Next week is expected to be changeable, with alternating wet and dry spells and temperatures likely to remain above average.
Sea surface temperatures are currently above normal, which means that even brief periods of sunshine could result in very warm or hot conditions.
Recent heatwave analysis
The recent heatwave, which extended into the beginning of this week, was notable for its intensity and duration. Observations show that several locations in central southern England and South Wales experienced three or four consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 30°C. This is well above the threshold for a heatwave, which is 28°C in London and lower elsewhere.
Several station records in Scotland and Northern Ireland were broken, with some dating back more than 50 years. The highest temperature recorded during the heatwave was 35.8°C in Faversham on 1 July. Interestingly, Cairngorm Summit, at 4,000 feet above sea level, was hotter than parts of Kent during the same period due to the specific flow of air and onshore conditions.
Unlike traditional heatwaves that draw hot air from Africa or Spain, this event was driven by adiabatic warming. Air originating over the Atlantic sank as it approached the UK, warming as it descended. Combined with high pressure and long summer days, this led to significant heat accumulation.
WATCH: The state of the UK climate - Climate Conversations
Rainfall patterns and drought concerns
Despite the recent wet weather, many regions are still facing drought conditions. June saw average rainfall across the UK as a whole, but this masked significant regional disparities. Central and eastern England received only 50-60% of their average rainfall, while western Scotland and northwest England were much wetter.
July began slightly wetter than average, but the past week has been notably dry, exacerbating existing issues. Rainfall expected later this week may help alleviate some concerns, particularly in southern regions, but eastern areas are likely to remain dry.
Climate change insights from the State of the UK Climate Report 2024
The Met Office’s State of the UK Climate Report 2024 presents a comprehensive analysis of long-term climate trends using data from weather stations, some dating back to the Victorian era. The report confirms a clear warming trend since 1884, with the past three years ranking among the five warmest on record. Extreme heat days are becoming more frequent, with days exceeding the 1961-1990 average by 5°C, 8°C, and even 10°C increasing significantly. These rising temperatures pose serious risks to public health, particularly for vulnerable groups, and strain infrastructure such as transport systems. Meanwhile, cold extremes are declining, which may allow pests and diseases to persist through milder winters, threatening agriculture and ecosystems.
Rainfall patterns are also shifting, with a 10% increase in overall precipitation, particularly during winter, which is now 16% wetter than the 1961–1990 baseline. Extreme rainfall events are becoming more common, contributing to record-breaking wet seasons like the winter of 2023–2024, which brought severe flooding to major river catchments. Sea levels around the UK have risen nearly 20 cm since 1900, with the pace accelerating due to warming oceans and melting ice sheets. Projections suggest sea levels could rise by metres by century’s end, posing significant threats to coastal communities and infrastructure.
From short-term forecasts to long-term projections, the evidence is clear: the UK is experiencing more frequent and intense weather extremes.
The State of the UK Climate Report 2024 provides essential insights for policymakers, planners, and the public. As climate change continues to unfold, decisions must be grounded in the best available science to ensure resilience and preparedness for the future.
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