As we move deeper into December, the weather continues to be dominated by rain and unsettled conditions, especially for western parts of the UK.
However, there are early signs of a significant change as we approach the Christmas period, with the potential for drier and less mild weather.
Let’s take a closer look at what to expect day by day, and how the broader weather patterns are shaping up for the festive season.
A wet start to December
The first half of December has been exceptionally wet in many areas, with some locations experiencing particularly heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours. From midday Saturday to midday Monday, large swathes of the UK, especially west Wales, western Scotland, and northwest England, have seen persistent rain. Cumbria, for example, recorded 360 millimetres of rainfall at Honister Pass, with other sites in the county exceeding 200 millimetres. North Wales and the Isle of Skye have also seen totals above 100 millimetres.
This deluge has been driven by a weather front that became stuck over northwestern parts of the country. In contrast, the south and east have seen much less rain over the weekend, but the front is now clearing south-eastwards, bringing a few drops of rain early Tuesday before fizzling out. The most active phase of this system is now behind us, but the ground remains saturated in many areas.
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Tuesday: Brighter spells for many, but showers in the northwest
Tuesday brings a much brighter day for many, with plenty of sunshine expected across western and northern England, Wales, southern Scotland, and Northern Ireland. After the rain clears, some cloud will linger in the southeast and East Anglia, but this should give way to sunny spells as the day progresses.
However, frequent showers will continue to affect the west of Scotland, with some thunder possible in places. Winds will be gusty here, and temperatures will feel fresh, around six or seven Celsius in the north and west, and nine or ten Celsius further south and east. These values are close to or just below average for the time of year, a noticeable change from the milder conditions experienced recently.
Wednesday: Wet and windy for many
As we move into Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will hold on for a time in the east, but the next weather system is already on the approach. It'll be another wet and windy day, rain will arrive first in the northwest with winds picking up towards the southeast. Rain will arrive first in the northwest, with winds picking up towards the southeast.
Some dense fog is likely in places during the morning, and will be slow to clear, and there may be a touch of frost to start the day. A yellow weather warning is in place for fog across large parts of England as well as Wales. Brighter skies are expected to develop in East Anglia and the southeast during the afternoon, but elsewhere, conditions will become increasingly wet. The heaviest rain will fall in the northwest during the morning, but by the afternoon, Wales and the southwest will see the wettest conditions, with yellow warnings in place due to the risk of localised flooding. The rain will slow down as it moves through, prolonging the wet spell for some.
Thursday: More rain, then showers
Thursday will see another spell of wet weather moving in after a brief drier interlude. Heavy rain will return to the south and southwest, spreading into Wales and the Midlands by lunchtime and eventually reaching the east of England. As the day goes on, showers will follow the main band of rain, with some heavy downpours, thunder in places, and gusty winds. Brighter skies may develop in the northwest later in the day.
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Friday: Blustery with sunshine and showers
Friday will be another blustery day, especially across Scotland, Northern Ireland, north and west England, and Wales. Showers will be frequent in these areas, while the central and southeastern parts of the UK may avoid the worst of the showers and enjoy plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will feel fresh, ranging from 7 to 11 Celsius.
The weekend: Wet spells, but a change on the horizon
As we head into the weekend, yet another weather system is expected to arrive, bringing more rain and strong winds. However, this time the rain is likely to move through more quickly, with only a couple of hours of wet weather followed by frequent showers. If you’re thinking it’s more of the same, you’re not wrong, but there are signs of a shift in the weather pattern as we approach Christmas.
Looking ahead: Signs of drier, less mild weather for Christmas
By the weekend, the forecast models suggest that the succession of low-pressure systems from the Atlantic may finally come to an end. A large area of high pressure is expected to build closer to the UK from around the 22nd of December. This shift is supported by probability plots showing a transition from dominant low-pressure to high-pressure patterns.
With high pressure in charge, the weather is likely to settle down, bringing clearer skies at night and the potential for frost and fog patches. While rain cannot be completely ruled out, especially in the south and southwest if lower pressure develops nearby, the overall trend is for fewer Atlantic lows, less wet and windy weather, and slightly colder conditions. This means that Christmas Day itself is looking drier and perhaps a little colder compared to the first half of December. Even if it’s not a white Christmas, a festive period with frost and less rain may be a welcome change for many.
In summary, the week ahead will be dominated by unsettled, wet, and windy weather, particularly in the west and northwest. However, there are encouraging signs that a more settled, drier, and colder spell is on the way as we approach Christmas.
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