After what has been a particularly wet and cloudy start to the year for many, the next 10 days offer a marked shift toward more settled conditions.
High pressure becomes the dominant feature for much of the period, limiting the influence of weather fronts and allowing for long spells of dry weather across large parts of the UK.
This change is driven in part by a repositioning of the jet stream. For much of the winter, the jet has taken a more southerly track, steering areas of low pressure directly towards the UK and delivering frequent rainfall. It has now shifted back toward a more typical early‑spring position, guiding low pressure systems further north toward Iceland.
As these systems attempt to push fronts into the UK, high pressure centred a little further south than earlier in the season acts as a block, slowing or weakening any incoming weather.
Early‑period temperatures: a warm peak before cooling
During the first few days of the outlook, mild air is drawn northwards around the western edge of high pressure. This southerly influence may even carry some Saharan dust at times, but its main effect is to lift temperatures well above average. On Thursday, parts of eastern England may reach 18 or 19°C, with warmth extending into eastern Scotland. By contrast, western Scotland remains much cooler, at just 8 or 9°C, held down by cloud and rain associated with an approaching weather front.
As this weakens into Friday and the winds turn more northerly, a drop in temperature becomes widespread. Areas that enjoyed low‑ to mid‑teens Celsius on Thursday may fall back into single figures. Northern England and Wales, in particular, are likely to see temperatures slipping below seasonal norms.
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Weekend: high pressure in charge
Into the weekend, high pressure builds again behind the fading front. Winds resume a more southerly or southeasterly direction, drawing milder air back into southern Britain. Most places will stay dry with some sunshine, although the extent of that sunshine is uncertain. A key question through both Saturday and Sunday is how persistent mist and low cloud will be, especially across eastern England, southern counties and parts of Wales.
There is increasing likelihood of low cloud each morning, and although stronger March sunshine should eventually erode it, this may take time. Where cloud lingers longest, daytime temperatures will be subdued; where sunshine breaks through earlier, it will feel pleasantly warm.
A weak front tries to move into the northwest later in the weekend, bringing some patchy rain to western Scotland and neighbouring areas, but it is unlikely to make significant progress further south or east.
Early next week: emerging uncertainty
As we move into Monday and Tuesday, the broader pattern remains similar, with high pressure still exerting influence. However, uncertainty grows around a developing area of low pressure to the south or southwest of the UK. Different forecast models place this feature in slightly different positions, and these subtle differences could affect how any weather fronts approach the UK.
This uncertainty largely stems from variations in how the models handle a developing trough in the jet stream over the Atlantic. Small changes early in the evolution of this system can have a sizeable impact on the eventual position and strength of the low. The key question is whether the low nudges fronts far enough northeast to influence the UK or remains further south, leaving conditions largely unchanged.
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Mid‑ to late‑period trend: a south-westerly pattern re‑establishes
Despite these uncertainties, the model guidance is broadly consistent on the overall pattern through the middle of next week: high pressure to the south or southeast of the UK and low pressure to the northwest. This places the UK in a predominantly south-westerly flow, with temperatures generally above average. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all carry a strong signal for this mild south-westerly setup.
Towards the end of the 10‑day period, the likelihood of a more unsettled pattern increases modestly. Model signals suggest low pressure systems are more likely to push in from the Atlantic later next week, though confidence remains below 50 per cent. Should this occur, rain would become more widespread and winds strengthen, especially in northern and western areas.
The first half of the forecast period is defined by dry, settled conditions for most, with temperatures near or above average and occasional early spring sunshine. Mist and low cloud may be slow to clear at times, particularly over the weekend. Into next week, temperatures remain on the mild side but uncertainty develops regarding the influence of a nearby low-pressure system. The end of the period hints at a gradual return to more changeable weather, though details at this range remain uncertain.
Overall, it is a notably more settled outlook than much of the year so far, offering a welcome window of quieter conditions before a possible shift back to more typical springtime variability later next week.
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