Weekend weather: Wet and windy at first before a gradual change next week

While there are growing signs of a change as we approach Christmas Day, the days immediately ahead remain dominated by unsettled Atlantic conditions. Low pressure systems continue to drive weather fronts in from the west, keeping things wet and breezy for many areas. However, there will also be some brighter interludes, particularly to start the weekend, before conditions turn wetter and windier once again.

A bright start to Saturday for many

Saturday begins on a generally fine and bright note across much of central and eastern Britain. Many areas will wake to clear skies and some early sunshine, though it will feel chilly first thing with temperatures dipping into low single figures. Frost will be patchy rather than widespread, but enough to remind us that winter is firmly here.

In contrast, showers will already be affecting western areas during the morning. These are likely to be most frequent along coasts exposed to the west or southwest wind, such as parts of western Scotland, Northern Ireland, west Wales, and Cornwall. Through the morning, cloud will increase from the west as the next weather front approaches.

By the afternoon, that front will bring a spell of heavy rain to Northern Ireland, western Scotland, west Wales, and southwest England. The system will be an active feature, carrying some squally bursts of rain and strengthening winds. Gusts could reach around 50 miles per hour along Irish Sea coasts and perhaps slightly higher in exposed locations.

Wet and windy in the west, drier further east

As Saturday progresses, the rain will become more extensive across western parts but may slow in its eastward movement. Central and eastern regions are likely to stay mostly dry for much of the day, though cloud will thicken and the breeze will freshen here too. The contrast will be marked, bright and chilly in the east, while wet and increasingly windy in the west.

Temperatures will be close to or a touch above average for mid-December, generally reaching highs of 7 to 10°C. However, the strengthening wind and rain will make it feel cooler, especially in the west.

Saturday evening and overnight will see the slow-moving weather front continue to bring rain to western areas, particularly southwest England and south Wales, where the ground is already saturated. These regions could experience some further heavy rainfall totals, adding to local surface water and flooding concerns.

Sunday: Cloudy and damp for many

By Sunday morning, low pressure will still be influencing the UK’s weather. Outbreaks of rain will continue to affect many parts, though the intensity and distribution will vary through the day. The heaviest and most frequent rain is likely across the southwest of England, south Wales, eastern Scotland, and parts of northern England. Northern Ireland can also expect some showery rain.

Elsewhere, conditions will be rather cloudy, with only brief drier interludes between showers. The best chance of any brighter or drier weather will be across northwestern Scotland, where clearer skies may develop at times. Even so, it will feel quite cool, especially where the wind picks up.

Although temperatures will still be slightly above average for the time of year, the fresh to strong westerly wind will make it feel colder than the thermometer suggests. Highs will again be around 7 to 9°C, with overnight lows generally holding up due to cloud cover and breeze, limiting the potential for frost.

READ MORE: Christmas weather extremes: Records from Christmas Eve to Boxing Day

Looking ahead: Signs of a change into next week

As we move into the early part of next week, the overall pattern begins to show signs of shifting. While the transition will be gradual, indications suggest high pressure may begin to build to the northeast of the UK by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Initially, low pressure systems will continue to track close to the southwest, bringing occasional rain or showers, particularly to southwestern areas and, at times, eastern Scotland. However, as high pressure strengthens to the north and northeast, it will start to push these systems further south, gradually cutting off the supply of Atlantic moisture.

By Christmas Eve, many places are expected to see a turn to drier, calmer conditions. It won’t be completely dry, some showers are likely to linger, especially across eastern and southern parts of the UK, but the overall picture is one of more settled weather.

A quieter, colder feel by Christmas

With winds expected to turn easterly later next week, temperatures will begin to fall back closer to or slightly below seasonal averages. While there is no strong signal for dramatically cold conditions at this stage, it will certainly feel colder compared to recent mild spells. The easterly wind will bring a chill, particularly along North Sea coasts, even as skies begin to brighten a little after what looks to be a rather cloudy few days early in the week.

By Christmas Day itself, the latest outlook suggests that much of the UK could experience a dry, perhaps occasionally sunny day. Eastern and southern areas may still see some showers, while clearer and colder conditions develop further north and west. Overnight frosts are likely to make a return in places, and it may feel quite crisp under any clear skies.

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