Autumn 2025 wasn’t short of impactful weather, with named storms, rain and snow finding their way into forecasts and headlines. But how accurate were Met Office forecasts in the season? Here, we find out.
Meteorological autumn was mild and wet, with Northern Ireland seeing its third wettest Autumn on record in a series which dates back to 1836.
Behind the scenes, Met Office meteorologists, advisers, presenters and spokespeople were working hard to deliver short and long-range forecasts to help people to stay safe and thrive.
How accurate and useful were warnings?
Including updates to warnings, which are a necessary part of forecasting, a total of 118 warnings were issued in total during the season. 105 of these were Yellow, with 13 in the Amber category.
The first named storm of the 25/26 season, Storm Amy hit northwestern parts of the UK in early October in what was an unusually strong, but not unprecedented, storm for October. A 96mph gust was reported and twelve weather stations with 30+ year records set their highest October gust speed on record.
An Amber warning for parts of Northern Ireland was issued for the event, with a post-event survey revealing how the warning was used. The post-event survey revealed 92% of those within the warning area were aware of the warning, with 90% of those taking action to protect themselves.
Storm Claudia, which was named by the Spanish meteorological agency, brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of England and south Wales. Parts of England and Wales received whole-month November average rainfall in six days from 9th to 14th. The Amber warning had 86% of people within the area aware of it, and 85% of those taking action to protect themselves.
How accurate were day-to-day forecasts?
Met Office forecast accuracy is routinely assessed in a wide variety of ways of ways, but the below figures are informed by forecast verification at around 120 sites around the UK, giving geographical spread across the UK.
Continual increases in forecast accuracy are made possible through better scientific understanding of the physics of the atmosphere, which allow us to improve our forecast models, enhancements in the supercomputing infrastructure required to run the models, and through better observations of the atmosphere, such as those made possible by new weather satellites. The advancement of AI is also providing new opportunities which could accelerate these improvements in the coming years.
Temperature forecasts are deemed to be ‘accurate’ if they’re correct within 2°C of the verifying observation.
1-Day maximum temperature forecasts in autumn were 96% accurate during the season, with 87% accuracy at the 5-day range.
1-Day minimum temperature forecasts were 85% accurate, this dropping to 61% at the 5-day range.
Autumn storms and wind speeds are always a cause of intrigue during the season. Wind speed is assessed as accurate if it’s within five knots of the verifying observation. By this metric, 89% of 1-day forecasts were accurate, this dropping to 77% at the 5-day range.
Wind direction is deemed as accurate if it’s within one compass point on a 16-point compass (22.5 degrees). 73% of 1-day forecasts were accurate and 51% at the 5-day range.
Met Office Director of Science Simon Vosper said: “Autumn weather saw a return to wet and windy weather for many and forecasting capability has stepped up to the mark and delivered, especially so when it really matters.
“Thanks to Met Office science and forecasting, we were able to maintain a high level of accuracy throughout the season, which brought its fair share of challenging meteorological set-ups, including snow, winds and rain.”
Communicating the forecast
Met Office website, social and app continued to be popular methods for people wanting to access the forecast wherever they are.
The app continues to be a key platform for users, especially during severe weather moments. On 3rd October, over 4million sessions took place and later in December we delayed the launch of the new app so that we could maintain a consistent platform in poor weather.
We’re now excited to launch the new app in January 2026. The refreshed app presents the same trusted information in a clearer, and easier to use format, with additional detailed data and specialist features being introduced over time based on user needs. Throughout the refreshed app development 18,000 people did user testing, and we’ve continually collected feedback, which directly shaped our design and features, including improvements to our warnings display. We’re excited for this next phase of our app journey; we will continue to listen and enhance the app based on user feedback.
Over 94million sessions took place on the website, with over 2million sessions on 3 October, which coincided with Storm Amy.
Storm Amy was also responsible for the most viewed post on X during autumn, with almost 260,000 views of the post announcing the named system.
YouTube’s audience, often benefiting from the in-depth insight of long-range forecast videos, swept in to watch the Week Ahead video from 17 November, which included the outlook for snow in the week. Over 360,000 tuned in for that single video, with over 300,000 watching the bespoke forecast for Storm Amy.
