The opening days of June are set to bring a notably changeable pattern across the UK, with frequent spells of rain and a generally unsettled feel to the weather.
This is largely being driven by a fairly active jet stream positioned further south than would typically be expected at this time of year.
This configuration is more commonly associated with autumn or winter, helping to steer a succession of low-pressure systems towards the UK. As a result, the dominant theme through the period will be alternating spells of rain, showers, and brisk winds, with only limited opportunities for more settled conditions.
Midweek conditions
In the short term, low pressure continues to influence the weather, bringing further showers and blustery conditions. The distribution and intensity of these showers will vary, with brisk winds in the south allowing showers to move through quickly, sometimes becoming intense with the risk of hail and thunder.
Further north, particularly across Scotland, winds are likely to be lighter at times, allowing showers to move more slowly. This increases the potential for higher rainfall totals, even if the showers themselves are less intense.
As the week progresses towards Friday, there are signs of a brief improvement. A weak ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, bringing a better chance of drier and brighter conditions, especially across eastern areas where some locations may avoid showers altogether.
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Unsettled weekend ahead
Attention then turns to a developing area of low pressure approaching from the Atlantic, which is expected to influence the UK’s weather through the weekend. While there remains some uncertainty regarding its exact strength and track, it is likely to bring a spell of wet and windy weather.
There is potential for gusty winds, particularly across western parts of the UK, including parts of southwest England, South Wales, and the south of Ireland. While not exceptional, these winds could still be notable for the time of year and may affect outdoor activities.
Rainfall is also likely to be significant in places, with western and upland areas most at risk of prolonged and heavier spells. Regions such as western Scotland, northwest England, and parts of Wales could see the highest totals, particularly where rain persists over higher ground.
Eastern areas are likely to fare somewhat better, seeing drier intervals at times, although occasional rain cannot be ruled out. Overall, temperatures through the weekend are expected to remain on the cool side, with the combination of wind and rain reinforcing the unsettled feel.
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Into next week
Looking ahead into next week, the influence of low pressure is expected to continue, maintaining a broadly unsettled pattern. Further spells of rain are likely to move across the UK, carried on a prevailing south-westerly flow.
Another area of low pressure may move in from the north early in the week, bringing additional wind and rain, particularly to Scotland and Northern Ireland. This system is likely to originate in cooler air, helping to keep temperatures suppressed.
The overall pattern suggests that southern and eastern parts may occasionally see brighter and slightly milder conditions, while the west and north remain more exposed to cloud, wind, and rain.
Signs of improvement later?
There are tentative signs that conditions could become somewhat more settled towards the latter part of the 10-day period. Some forecast scenarios indicate that higher pressure may begin to build, potentially bringing drier and warmer conditions.
However, confidence in this outcome remains relatively low at this stage. The more dominant signal continues to favour a south-westerly regime, which would maintain a generally unsettled and changeable pattern, with further rain and showers interspersed with brighter spells.
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