The start of meteorological summer has brought a stark contrast to the exceptional conditions experienced just a week earlier.
After a prolonged spell of unusually hot weather, with temperatures exceeding 30°C for several consecutive days, conditions across the UK have turned markedly cooler, wetter and more changeable.
For many, the drop in temperature has been particularly noticeable. Across parts of England, temperatures are now more than 9°C lower than they were at the same time last week, with some locations seeing differences of over 15°C. This highlights just how exceptional the recent heat was, including the UK exceeding 35°C for the first time in May on record.
Why has the weather changed?
The recent hot spell was driven by high pressure dominating the weather pattern across much of the UK and northern Europe. This allowed warm air to build and persist, aided by long daylight hours typical of late spring.
However, that situation has now broken down. A key driver of the current change is a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During May, the NAO spent much of its time in a negative phase, favouring settled, high-pressure conditions. At the start of June, it has shifted strongly into a positive phase, strengthening the jet stream and allowing Atlantic weather systems to return.
This stronger, more southerly positioned jet stream is now steering low pressure systems across the UK, bringing frequent spells of rain, showers and gusty winds. As a result, the weather has returned to a more changeable early summer pattern.
This week is very different to last, with low pressure dominating the bigger picture 🌀
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 2, 2026
This means often changeable weather ahead, with rain and showers, and it’ll turn unseasonably windy towards the end of the week too 💨 pic.twitter.com/tD30gRNnqn
Midweek: heavy showers and thunderstorms
Through the middle of the week, low pressure remains nearby, bringing a mix of persistent rain and heavy, convective showers. A band of rain moves across the UK, but it is the showers either side of this frontal feature that are likely to have the greatest impact.
Across parts of Northern Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland, conditions are favourable for more intense downpours. Some areas could see 20 to 30 mm of rain in just a few hours, accompanied by hail, thunder and gusty winds.
The strongest convection is most likely in northern and central areas, although showers may develop more widely. Even where rainfall is more scattered, conditions will feel unsettled, with bright intervals interspersed by heavy downpours.
Wind and temperature trends
Alongside the rain and showers, winds will be a notable feature. The strengthened jet stream and nearby low pressure will bring gusty conditions, particularly in exposed areas. Some locations may see gusts of 40 to 50 mph, especially in association with heavier showers.
Temperatures will be closer to average for early June, though they may feel cool compared to last week’s heat. The combination of cloud, rain and wind will enhance the fresher feel, particularly across northern and western areas.
READ MORE: May 2026 weather stats: A breakdown by county
Late week: continued unsettled conditions
The unsettled theme continues into Thursday, with further showers and occasional longer spells of rain. A ridge of high pressure may briefly build on Friday, bringing a short-lived improvement with fewer showers and some clearer intervals.
However, this improvement is expected to be temporary. Further low pressure systems are likely to move in from the Atlantic, maintaining a generally mixed pattern as the week progresses.
Weekend outlook: uncertainty with developing low pressure
Looking ahead to the weekend, the forecast remains uncertain as Atlantic influences continue to develop.
Greg Wolverson, Deputy Chief Forecaster at the Met Office said: “The weekend will remain unsettled as an Atlantic system approaches the UK. The picture is still evolving, with several outcomes possible. The majority outline a breezy but not exceptional day on Saturday, however a few solutions highlight the risk of an unseasonably windy day with possible disruption.
“A developing area of low pressure is forming in the western Atlantic. By Friday, the way it interacts with the jet stream will determine how strong it is when it reaches us. It could either stay a well‑developed, windy system, or weaken significantly before arriving in the UK.
“Rainfall totals could also build up through the weekend, with some areas of northwestern UK seeing successive periods of heavy rain. With several outcomes possible at this stage, do keep an eye on our forecasts as the week goes on and the picture evolves.”
READ MORE: How has summer warmth changed in the UK?
Looking further ahead into June
Despite the unsettled start to the month, there are signs that conditions may become more settled later in June. Current guidance suggests a gradual return to higher pressure, particularly through the middle of the month, which could bring drier and more stable weather.
Temperature trends also suggest that while conditions are currently near average, there is an increased likelihood of warmer-than-average weather later in the month. However, this does not guarantee prolonged heat, and variability remains likely.
What does this mean for the summer ahead?
The Met office seasonal outlook indicate that much of the UK is likely to experience near-average conditions overall through June, July and August. However, there is a slightly greater likelihood of warmer-than-average temperatures compared to cooler ones, reflecting ongoing long-term warming trends.
Rainfall signals are less clear, with near-average conditions most likely, though there remains a slight tendency towards wetter conditions compared to drier ones.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
