After another spell of exceptional heat, the weather pattern across the UK looks set to change during the next 10 days.
While temperatures will return closer to seasonal averages for many areas, confidence is lower when it comes to rainfall. There are signs of wetter conditions developing, but questions remain over how much rain will actually fall and whether it will make a meaningful difference to ongoing dry conditions in some areas.
Peak heat before a notable change
Thursday marks the peak of the current heatwave, with another hot and sunny day across much of England and Wales. Temperatures are forecast to reach 36°C to 38°C in parts of central, western and eastern England, where an amber extreme heat warning remains in force. At these temperatures there is an increased risk of impacts to health, transport and infrastructure.
Further north and west, there will be more cloud and outbreaks of rain, particularly across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Even here, however, it will remain very warm and humid, with temperatures widely reaching the mid to high 20s and locally exceeding 30°C.
Humidity is not expected to be as high as during some of the earlier heatwaves this summer, which should make conditions feel somewhat less oppressive. Nevertheless, it will still be exceptionally hot in the warning area.
A yellow warning for thunderstorms is also in place across Northern Ireland for 11am Thursday until 6am Friday.
⚠️⚠️ Amber weather warning updated ⚠️⚠️
— Met Office (@metoffice) August 13, 2026
Extreme heat across England
Valid until 2359 on Thursday
Latest info 👉 https://t.co/TfU9Ok8qZD
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Heat easing through Friday and the weekend
A weakening weather front will gradually introduce fresher air from the west. While southeastern England is expected to hold on to hot conditions through Friday, temperatures should be lower than those experienced on Thursday. Even so, parts of the southeast could still see temperatures reach the low or even mid-30s.
Elsewhere, fresher conditions will become increasingly established. By the weekend, temperatures across most of the UK are expected to be much closer to average for mid-August.
This change will be noticeable after a summer dominated by prolonged warmth and repeated heatwaves. Looking further ahead, there are currently few signs of another exceptionally hot spell developing in the immediate future. Instead, many areas are likely to experience temperatures near average, with some locations slightly above or slightly below seasonal norms.
Rainfall prospects remain uncertain
The more challenging part of the forecast concerns rainfall. While confidence is high that conditions will become fresher, confidence is lower regarding how wet things may turn.
Friday and Saturday are likely to bring some showers, particularly across northern and western areas. There is also a small possibility of showers developing further southeast during Saturday. Sunday, however, is now expected to be largely dry and often sunny for many places after earlier indications suggested wetter conditions could arrive sooner.
Attention then turns to the start of next week, when a developing area of low pressure is expected to track across or near the UK. Forecast models broadly agree that this system should bring a spell of wetter weather, but there remains uncertainty surrounding both the timing and intensity of the rainfall.
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A wetter start to next week
Current indications suggest rain could sweep south-eastwards across the country sometime between late Monday and Tuesday. Some heavier bursts are possible, with the potential for locally intense downpours along the leading weather front.
However, recent weeks have shown how difficult it can be to forecast rainfall far in advance. Several forecast systems have previously suggested wetter weather only for the rain to weaken or fail to materialise as expected. For that reason, confidence remains lower than for the temperature forecast.
Even if the rain does arrive as currently expected, it is unlikely to provide a complete solution to drought concerns. Much of the rainfall is expected to move through relatively quickly, and some of it may simply run off very dry ground rather than being fully absorbed. What many areas need is prolonged, persistent rainfall rather than short-lived showers or brief frontal systems.
Looking beyond next week
As we move further into next week, uncertainty increases. Some forecast scenarios suggest high pressure could rebuild from the southwest, bringing further settled weather. Others indicate a more changeable pattern with low pressure systems bringing spells of rain, particularly to northwestern parts of the UK.
The key difference compared with much of the summer is that weather patterns are becoming less settled and more variable. Rather than the persistent dominance of high pressure seen in recent months, there is now a broader range of possible outcomes.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
