After another very warm spell for parts of the UK, the weather over the next 10 days looks set to become more familiar for late summer, with temperatures returning closer to average for many.
However, while some rain is in the forecast, especially further north, there is still no strong signal for a widespread, sustained change to wetter conditions.
The jet stream remains relatively weak, which is typical for the time of year, and this is making the forecast more uncertain than it might be at other times of year. A shallow trough in the jet stream is helping to generate low-pressure systems to the north of the UK, bringing showers and some longer spells of rain to northern areas over the next few days. Further south, however, high pressure is still playing a more dominant role.
A fresher feel after the heat
The immediate trend is for a cooler and fresher feel to spread across many parts of the country. Following a hot day on Wednesday, especially in the southeast, a cold front is moving southwards across the UK. This front is weakening as it moves through, so it is not expected to bring much rain for many areas, but it will introduce cloudier skies and lower temperatures.
Even behind the front, it will still feel warm in any sunshine, particularly across the south and southeast, where temperatures could still reach the high 20s around London. However, these values will be notably lower than the heat seen earlier in the week. Further north, temperatures will be cooler still, with some areas only reaching the mid to high teens by Friday.
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Largely dry weekend for most
Through Friday and into the weekend, high pressure is expected to remain influential across southern parts of the UK. There will be some showers moving into Northern Ireland and Scotland on a brisk west or south-westerly breeze, but much of England and Wales should stay largely dry with sunny spells.
For most places, the weekend looks like a fine summer weekend rather than a wet one. Scattered showers are possible, particularly across northern Scotland, but the majority of the UK is expected to stay dry. Temperatures will be much closer to average than they have been recently, especially in the south, where the recent heat will ease.
Rain chances rise early next week
One of the main uncertainties in the forecast is a small area of low pressure to the southwest of the UK. Its exact track will determine whether southern areas see some useful rain early next week. At present, several forecast models show a broadly similar pattern, with wet weather most likely across Scotland, northwest England and north Wales over the next five days. Southern areas may see a little showery rain, but amounts look limited in the short term.
There remains a chance that this low could move a little further north and bring showery rain into southern parts of the UK around Monday or Tuesday. Some ensemble members even suggest a more potent system, with rain and stronger winds, but these are in the minority. The more likely outcome is a weaker feature, still capable of producing showers but unlikely to bring a major spell of wet weather.
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High pressure likely to return
Beyond the early part of next week, the most likely signal is for high pressure to re-establish itself either over or close to the UK. One scenario places high pressure to the northwest, bringing more of an easterly or northerly breeze, while another keeps it closer to the west of the UK. Either way, the broad message is that high pressure remains the dominant feature.
That means rainfall is likely to remain limited for many areas. While some showers are possible, especially if the early-week low comes further north, there is little sign of the kind of dramatic pattern change needed to bring widespread or prolonged rain. For those looking for meaningful rainfall, particularly in the south, the forecast offers only limited encouragement.
Temperatures are expected to trend much closer to average through the period. Birmingham starts very warm, but values fall back nearer average, although they may remain a little above average at times into next week. Dundee follows a similar pattern, with temperatures closer to average overall and perhaps a little below average at times next week
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