Recent weather headlines have focused on everything from a late September “heat bomb” and temperatures approaching 30°C to a “brutal” chill and dozens of areas being soaked.
But, how do these claims compare with the latest Met Office forecast?
Headlines often draw attention to the most striking outcome shown by an individual weather map or forecast model run. While the temperatures or rainfall shown may be possible, they do not always represent the most likely outcome or reflect the uncertainty and regional variation within a longer-range forecast.
In this review, we take a closer look at some of the most prominent headlines and compare them with the current outlook for the latter part of September and into October.
Is a 29°C “heat bomb” on the way?
The headline “UK weather maps turn volcanic red in up to 29°C heat bomb - 16 hottest counties” suggests that an exceptional burst of heat is about to affect parts of the country.
The latest Met Office outlook does indicate that temperatures are likely to rise. From Wednesday to Friday next week, conditions are expected to be warm for many areas, with parts of the south perhaps becoming very warm and humid.
However, the forecast does not confirm a temperature of 29°C or identify 16 counties as being certain to experience the highest values. Terms such as “volcanic red” refer to the colours used on some temperature maps, rather than indicating that the weather itself will be extreme.
While a notably warm spell is probable, particularly in the south, an explosive or exceptional “heat bomb” is not the central message of the forecast and there is still uncertainty surrounding the longevity of this warm period.
READ MORE: Will we see one last heatwave?
Is a “brutal” 4°C chill about to hit?
Another headline claims that “UK weather maps show when brutal 4°C chill hits - eight counties below 7°C”.
Temperatures close to 4°C would feel pretty chilly, especially following a period of warmer weather. Lower overnight temperatures can occur locally during autumn when skies are clear and winds are light. However, an isolated minimum temperature is not necessarily representative of conditions across the UK or of daytime temperatures.
The longer-range forecast does not indicate a widespread or prolonged cold spell. Temperatures are expected to be near average in the northwest between 23 and 25 September, while many other areas are likely to be rather warm or warm. Looking towards mid-October, temperatures are forecast to remain above average overall.
A chilly night in a few locations therefore remains possible, but the broader forecast signal is not one of unusually cold weather.
Could temperatures soar to 30°C?
The headline “Met Office reveals date heat to return as UK weather maps show soaring 30C surge” also focuses on the possibility of a late burst of summer-like warmth.
There is some support for temperatures rising during the latter part of September. Many areas could become rather warm or warm, with the possibility of very warm and humid conditions in parts of the south.
However, a widespread temperature of 30°C is not confirmed by the current outlook. At this range, confidence is higher in the general trend towards warmer weather than in a precise maximum temperature for an individual location.
The headline therefore reflects a genuine forecast signal, but presents one of the warmer possible outcomes with greater certainty than the forecast currently supports.
Will cooler weather be followed by a warmer spell?
Of the headlines reviewed, “Cooler and unsettled weather continues before warmer spell” most closely reflects the overall forecast trend.
A transition towards drier and warmer conditions is possible for many areas at the start of next week. The far northwest may hold on to more changeable weather, including some rain and potentially strong winds, while a good part of the UK is likely to remain dry.
Settled conditions may continue for many into the latter part of September, although northern and northwestern areas are likely to remain more exposed to Atlantic weather systems.
READ MORE: Do changing seasons affect the jet stream?
Are 34 parts of the country going to be soaked?
Another eye-catching headline reads: “UK weather maps show the 34 parts of the country due to be soaked – full list”.
The forecast does indicate that some rain is possible, especially in the far northwest. However, it also states that a good part of the UK is likely to be dry between 23 and 25 September.
More changeable weather may become established across a wider area during October, but western and northwestern parts of the UK are most likely to experience the wettest conditions. There is also a small risk of some very strong winds, although this is normal for the time of year.
A list of locations shown beneath rain on one forecast map should therefore not be interpreted as confirmation that every area will experience prolonged or particularly heavy rainfall.
What does the forecast actually suggest?
The clearest signal is for drier and warmer weather to develop across many parts of the UK at the start of next week. Southern areas could become very warm and humid, while the far northwest is more likely to retain spells of rain and potentially strong winds.
Looking into October, more changeable conditions may spread more widely, with the wettest weather most likely in western and northwestern areas. Temperatures are nevertheless expected to remain above average overall.
As always, individual weather headlines may focus on one temperature, location or possible outcome. The Met Office forecast presents a more nuanced picture: warmth is possible for many and rain remains likely in the northwest, but neither exceptional nationwide heat nor a widespread cold snap is currently the most likely outcome.
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