Does a hot summer mean a cold winter? 

It is one of the most enduring pieces of weather folklore, alongside sayings such as “red sky at night, shepherd’s delight” and “rain before seven, fine by eleven”. The idea is simple: if one season is unusually warm, the atmosphere somehow compensates by delivering colder weather later in the year. 

But is there any truth to the idea? 

The short answer: No 

There is no reliable meteorological relationship between a hot summer and the severity of the following winter. 

While it can be tempting to look for patterns between seasons, the weather systems that drive summer heat are often very different from those that influence winter weather. A warm summer does not create a “weather debt” that must be repaid with a cold winter. 

In reality, the atmosphere is constantly changing. The weather patterns that produced a heatwave in July may have little influence on what happens several months later in December or January. 

READ MORE: Do changing seasons affect the jet stream?

Why does the myth persist? 

Part of the reason is that people naturally look for patterns in the weather. Extreme seasons are memorable, and when a hot summer is followed by a cold winter, the connection tends to stick in our minds. 

However, examples can be found in every direction. Some warm summers have been followed by relatively mild winters, while others have been followed by colder conditions. The same is true for cool summers. 

This inconsistency highlights the challenge of linking one season directly to another. 

What controls winter weather? 

Winter weather across the UK is influenced by a wide range of factors, many of which do not become important until autumn and early winter. 

The position and strength of the jet stream can play a crucial role in determining whether the UK experiences mild Atlantic air or colder Arctic air. Large-scale atmospheric patterns, the behaviour of pressure systems over the North Atlantic and conditions in the stratosphere can also shape winter weather. 

These influences evolve over weeks and months, meaning that a hot summer provides very little information about how winter will unfold. 

Putting summer 2026 into context 

Summer 2026 was exceptional by many measures. The UK recorded 33 days above 30°C, surpassing the total recorded during the whole of the famous summer of 1976. Temperatures also reached 35°C during May, June, July and August for the first time on record, while England and Wales recorded their warmest summers by mean temperature.  

The season was also notably dry. England and Wales experienced their driest Julys on record, while southern England recorded its driest calendar month. Drought conditions developed across large parts of England and throughout Wales.  

With such an extraordinary summer fresh in the memory, it is understandable that many people wonder whether winter might swing sharply in the opposite direction. 

The answer is that the summer itself does not make a colder winter more likely. 

Can a hot summer tell us anything about winter? 

Not directly. 

What a hot summer can tell us is something about the broader climate. Recent decades have seen a trend towards warmer temperatures, and climate change is increasing the likelihood and intensity of heat extremes in the UK. 

Comparing modern summers with those of previous decades highlights how a warming climate is making heat extremes more severe and increasing the associated risks and impacts.  

However, climate and weather are not the same thing. 

Climate describes long-term averages and trends over many years, whereas weather describes the day-to-day and season-to-season conditions we experience. While climate change is making warm seasons more likely overall, it does not prevent individual winters from being cold, snowy or stormy. 

READ MORE: Record-Breaking El Niño Surpasses Previous Benchmarks

Will El Niño mean a colder winter?  

The current El Niño is unprecedented in terms of its strength at present and various seasonal modelling centres predict further strengthening over the next couple of months, with a predicted peak in November of December. For the UK, El Niño increases the chances of a wetter and stormier late autumn and early winter period, which would also likely be milder than normal.  

Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather. However, significant as El Niño is, it is important to emphasise that it alone does not determine precise weather patterns and other outcomes remain possible.   

So, what can we say about the coming winter? 

At this stage, it is simply too early to determine exactly what winter 2026-27 will bring. 

Forecast confidence naturally decreases the further ahead we look, and the key drivers of winter weather are still evolving. What meteorologists can say is that the character of the coming winter will be determined by atmospheric patterns developing through autumn and early winter, rather than by the heat experienced during the summer. 

So, despite the old saying, there is no scientific evidence that a hot summer leads to a cold winter. 

The UK may experience a cold winter, a mild winter or something in between. But whatever happens, it will not be because summer 2026 was exceptionally warm. 

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