Much of the UK has seen a dry and warm summer so far, and the coming days will bring another rise in temperatures for some.
However, the developing hot spell is not expected to be widespread across the whole country. Instead, the main focus is on the southeast, where temperatures could climb high enough for some places to meet official heatwave criteria by Thursday.
At the same time, the rainfall story remains an important part of the wider summer picture. Met Office HadUK-Grid data shows that, from 1 June to 26 July, the UK has recorded 111.7mm of rainfall in the daily rainfall series provided, with 90.4mm falling during June and only 21.3mm recorded from 1 to 26 July.
What is expected this week?
From Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to rise more widely, with much of England, Wales and eastern Scotland seeing a dry day with sunny conditions. This marks the start of an increasingly warm, but relatively short-lived, spell of hot weather. The UK Health Security Agency have issued Heat Health Alerts for parts of England from Tuesday to Thursday.
Where will the highest temperatures be?
While Tuesday is expected to be hot in the southeast, with temperatures widely reaching 29-30°C, Wednesday is forecast to bring the peak of the heat. Maximum temperatures of 35°C are possible across southeastern England.
Thursday then sees the beginning of a gradual transition to cooler conditions for much of the UK. However, the southeast is expected to hold onto the heat for a little longer, with another hot day and temperatures widely around 29°C. This could be enough for parts of the region to meet official heatwave conditions.
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Is this a heatwave?
Some places could well reach official heatwave criteria, though this won't be as widespread as some previous heatwaves in recent months. The greatest chance of heatwave criteria being met in parts of the southeast.
While the southeast could see temperatures climb quickly through the first half of the week, areas further north and west will see a more changeable pattern.
A different picture in the north and west
Elsewhere, the weather will be more mixed. Western Scotland and northwest England will be cloudier on Tuesday, with periods of rain or drizzle. There is also a small chance of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern Ireland and southern Scotland later in the day.
The change to cooler, more unsettled conditions will arrive sooner from the north and west, bringing a mix of sunshine and showers. Across northern areas, heavier showers are possible, with a small risk of isolated thunderstorms through the week.
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How dry has summer been so far?
The Met Office’s daily rainfall data shows a clear contrast between June and July. June recorded 90.4mm in the HadUK-Grid series, helped by several wetter days early in the month, including 10.7mm on 1 June, 8.6mm on 3 June and 7.6mm on 7 June.
July has been much drier so far, with 21.3mm recorded between 1 and 26 July in the same series. The driest spell came between 8 and 23 July, when the data shows just 1.9mm of rain in total, including seven dry days and 15 days with 0.2mm or less reported.
There has been some rain more recently, with 1.4mm on 24 July, 2.7mm on 25 July and 1.2mm on 26 July. However, these totals remain modest when set against the broader summer picture.
What happens next?
Heat is expected to build quickly, but not everywhere. For the southeast, temperatures could be high enough for a heatwave by Thursday, with Wednesday likely to bring the peak of this short hot spell.
For the wider UK, the outlook is more varied. Many eastern and southern areas will see dry, sunny and increasingly warm weather for a time, while northwestern areas remain more changeable with rain or drizzle at times.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
