The weather pattern across the UK looks set to remain largely settled through the next 10 days, taking us to the doorstep of the first May bank holiday.
High pressure is expected to be the dominant feature, keeping conditions mostly dry with plenty of fine weather, although temperatures and cloud cover will continue to vary depending on wind direction and proximity to the coast.
While the overall theme does not change dramatically, there are still important regional differences and day‑to‑day details worth watching as we head deeper into late April.
The synoptic picture
The key driver behind the quiet spell is the position of the jet stream, which is currently displaced well to the north of the UK. Instead of crossing the country, it is arching across Greenland and down towards Scandinavia. This setup favours the development and persistence of high pressure close to the UK, limiting the influence of Atlantic low-pressure systems.
Although there are areas of low pressure out in the Atlantic, these systems are weak and largely blocked. As a result, weather fronts struggle to move across the country, and rainfall amounts remain very limited for most areas.
Midweek conditions: breezy coasts, warm inland
Through the middle of the week, high pressure remains close, with winds circulating clockwise around it. This brings an easterly breeze to parts of the eastern coast of England, including Lincolnshire, East Anglia and Kent. With the North Sea still relatively cold at this time of year, these onshore winds give a noticeably cooler feel and may also bring periods of low cloud or sea mist.
Further west, particularly across southwest England, winds remain brisk as pressure gradients stay tight between the high and weak Atlantic low pressure. It will not be as windy as earlier in the week, but the breeze will continue to add some bite to temperatures here.
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In contrast, inland areas of England and parts of eastern Wales are likely to see the warmest conditions. Sunshine will be strong, and where winds are lighter, temperatures can climb into the high teens or low 20s, making it feel pleasant despite the relatively cool mornings.
Fog and mist risk overnight
With high pressure comes light winds, clear spells and cool nights. This means there is a risk of mist or shallow fog developing overnight, particularly across eastern England. Any fog that does form is expected to be short‑lived, clearing quickly after sunrise as April sunshine strengthens.
Although mornings may start chilly in places, daytime heating will be effective, especially where skies remain clear.
End of the week: easing winds and rising temperatures
As high pressure becomes more firmly established later in the week, winds generally continue to ease for many areas. This allows temperatures to recover along eastern coasts, reducing the chill experienced earlier in the week.
By Friday, many areas are likely to be close to or a few degrees above the seasonal average. Inland parts of England could once again reach the low 20s, while Northern Ireland and southern Scotland typically see values in the mid to high teens.
A weak weather front may brush far western areas late on Friday night, bringing a little extra cloud and the slight chance of showers. However, rainfall will be light and patchy, and most places remain dry.
Weekend overview: largely dry and increasingly warm
High pressure continues to shape the weather through the weekend. Saturday starts with some local chilly mornings, but sunshine will again allow temperatures to rise. Northern Scotland may notice a fresher feel as a weak low-pressure system moves through Scandinavia, briefly introducing northerly winds.
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This northerly airflow is most likely to affect the far north, with Shetland seeing temperatures staying in single figures. Elsewhere, the impact is limited, and many areas further south still enjoy warm inland conditions.
By Sunday, winds are generally light once more, and temperatures build again for many, with highs in the low 20s possible and isolated spots reaching 22 or 23°C. Some increase in cloud and a little showery rain may move into northern Scotland later in the day, but most of the UK stays dry and bright.
Why it feels warmer despite Atlantic air
Despite the rising temperatures, this is not a classic warm spell driven by air flowing up from the south. Instead, much of the air feeding into the UK originates in the Atlantic and circulates around areas of high pressure.
The warming comes from a combination of strong late‑April sunshine, sinking air under high pressure being compressed and warmed, and gradual day‑on‑day heating of the land surface. This means that even with an Atlantic origin, temperatures can climb well above average where conditions are settled and sunny.
Confidence remains high into next week
Looking further ahead, ensemble forecast guidance shows a strong and consistent signal that high pressure will remain the dominant feature into next week. More than half of the most likely scenarios keep anticyclonic conditions close to or across the UK well beyond the weekend.
The main uncertainty lies not in whether high pressure will persist, but in exactly where it will be centred. This detail is crucial, as the position of the high determines wind direction. With sea temperatures still low, even a slight change in airflow can mean the difference between cool, cloudy coastal conditions and warm sunshine just inland.
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