The UK is on course to record its warmest summer on record for mean temperature, with only average conditions needed for the remainder of August to surpass the record set only last year.
Provisional Met Office statistics show that the UK's mean temperature for meteorological summer so far (1 June to 10 August) currently stands at 16.48°C, which is 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average.
To equal the current UK summer mean temperature record of 16.12°C set in 2025, the remainder of August would only need to average 0.21°C below the 1991-2020 long-term average for meteorological summer. Any warmer than this would establish a new UK record, with records starting in 1884.
The signal is even stronger across England and Wales.
England has recorded a mean summer temperature of 18.19°C so far, 2.46°C above average. The remainder of August would need to be 1.41°C below the summer average for England to equal its current warmest summer on record, also set in 2025.
In Wales, the mean summer temperature currently stands at 16.80°C, 2.17°C above average. The remainder of the month would need to be 1.40°C below the summer average to equal the existing record.
The UK’s record warmest summer on record for average maximum temperatures, set in the iconic summer of 1976, also looks under threat, with the remainder of August needing to be only 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 summer average to exceed this.
Met Office senior scientist Mike Kendon said:
"Another record-breaking summer now looks increasingly likely for the UK, following the second-warmest June, and second-warmest July on record and yet another heatwave imminent. We’ve seen temperatures hit 38°C in June, 35°C in early and late July, and this threshold is looking to be reached again in the next few days. It’s worth remembering we also reached 35°C in late May and easily exceeded both the May and June previous all-time temperature records this year. These statistics are a clear reminder – if one were needed – of the stark changes that we are seeing in the UK’s climate.
"Looking ahead, forecasts indicate temperatures will remain well above average through much of the coming week, with another spell of heatwave conditions expected to develop in some areas. While individual hot spells do not determine seasonal records on their own, sustained periods of warmth throughout the summer have contributed to the exceptionally high average temperatures we've seen so far."
What does the weather look like for the rest of August?
The Met Office’s long-range forecast shows that high pressure may begin to weaken into the start of next week, bringing the potential for some showers or longer spells of rain across parts of the UK for a time, with temperatures likely to be near or slightly above average. Later in the month though, high pressure is expected to become more dominant, and this is likely to bring longer periods of dry weather for many, with temperatures likely to be above average.
Summer temperatures so far this year
|
Area |
Mean temp (1 June - 10 Aug 2026) |
Difference from summer average |
Current warmest summer on record |
|---|---|---|---|
|
UK |
16.48°C |
+1.88°C |
16.12°C (2025) |
|
England |
18.19°C |
+2.46°C |
17.44°C (2025) |
|
Wales |
16.80°C |
+2.17°C |
16.09°C (2025) |
