The first week of meteorological autumn will bring a mixture of rain, showers and sunny spells across the UK, with Atlantic low-pressure systems becoming increasingly influential.
Temperatures will generally rise as the week progresses, particularly in southern England, although conditions will remain closer to average farther north.
After meteorological summer ended on a relatively quiet note, the jet stream is expected to become more active across the UK. This will allow areas of low pressure to move in from the Atlantic, bringing rain to many places during the working week. Central parts of the country and some areas of higher ground are likely to record the largest rainfall totals, while southern and southeastern England may experience longer dry intervals.
Rain moving south
Tuesday begins brightly across much of England and Wales, with sunny spells and a scattering of showers. Farther northwest, a band of rain will move into Scotland before slowly progressing southwards into Northern Ireland and northern England. Some of the rain could become heavy, while brighter conditions with sunshine and showers will follow behind across Scotland. Winds may also turn gusty for a time in the northwest.
Temperatures will be near the seasonal average for 1 September. Most places will reach the high teens or low 20s Celsius, although southeastern England could see highs of 22 or 23°C where the best sunny spells develop.
Further unsettled weather on Wednesday
Another area of low pressure will approach from the Atlantic during Tuesday night and Wednesday. While there remains some uncertainty over the strength of this system, it is expected to bring increasing cloud and outbreaks of rain, particularly across a central swathe of the UK. North Wales and northern England could see some persistent rain during the morning and afternoon.
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There will be sunny spells and showers on either side of the main rain band, with some showers potentially turning heavy across England and Wales. A south-westerly breeze will draw more humid air into southern areas, allowing temperatures to reach 23 or 24°C. Scotland should be fresher and largely dry with sunny spells, while Northern Ireland is likely to remain rather cloudy with showery rain and temperatures near 20°C.
Sunshine and showers on Thursday
As Wednesday’s system clears, Thursday will bring a brisk westerly flow, with early rain giving way to a mixture of sunshine and showers. Some longer spells of rain are possible across Shetland, while showers will affect parts of northwestern Britain. Another weather system may begin to approach western coasts later, bringing light rain or drizzle to parts of Wales and other western areas. Its precise timing remains uncertain.
It will feel warm and humid where the sun appears, with temperatures potentially reaching 25 or 26°C in southeastern England. Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will generally see values in the high teens or low 20s.
READ MORE: How pressure drives the UK's journey from summer to autumn
Rain risk continues into Friday
A weather front will attempt to move across the UK on Friday, marking the boundary between warm and humid air in the south and fresher conditions farther north. Rain may clear to sunshine and showers across Scotland, but cloud and showery rain could linger across central and southern areas. Some heavier bursts are possible, although there is uncertainty over how extensive the rain will become.
Temperatures could again reach the mid-20s Celsius in southern areas where brighter breaks develop. Scotland will be cooler, with highs broadly between 16 and 19°C.
Signs of improvement for the weekend
A ridge of high pressure may extend northwards during Saturday and Sunday, potentially allowing warmer and drier air to spread across much of the UK. However, an Atlantic low could still bring wet and windy conditions into northern and western areas. Alternatively, it may pass to the northwest and leave most of the country dry, so confidence in the weekend detail remains limited.
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